Cleveland Browns starting quarterback Deshaun Watson is off to a lackluster start to begin his 2024 campaign. The Browns entered the new season with fairly lofty expectations after qualifying for the playoffs last year, but currently find themselves at 1-2 after losing to the lowly New York Giants. If Watson struggles again versus the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4, head coach Kevin Stefanski should consider benching him in favor of Jameis Winston.
Watson has completed just 57.8% of his passing attempts through three games. His completion percentage is third-lowest in the league among quarterbacks who have started all three games, ahead of just fellow strugglers Anthony Richardson and Trevor Lawrence. The only quarterback in the league with a lower yards per attempt than Watson's 4.8 is Bryce Young (4.4), who's already been benched. His adjusted quarterback rating of 22.5 is also only better than Young’s (9.1).
Watson has thrown three touchdowns versus two interceptions. He’s been sacked on a league-high 16 occasions, yet the Browns have posted a pass-block win rate (PBWR) of 66%, eighth-best in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Info. That strongly suggests Watson is largely responsible for his own sacks. The following chart which measures the percent of dropbacks with a clean pocket versus the number of dropbacks that result in a sack indicates Watson is often to blame for plays that conclude with him on the ground.
How often teams give their QBs clean pockets 🆚 how often they allow sacks 🛡️ https://t.co/EL4GKXKJkv pic.twitter.com/WyRMWq4nre
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) September 25, 2024
There appears to be some disdain between Watson and the coaching staff as well. Watson has rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown via 14 carries this season, but when asked about designed runs earlier this week, he was less than responsive.
"I'm not a running back," Watson said. "It's not my specialty. They signed me to throw the ball, make decisions and be a quarterback, not a runner." Watson later claimed Stefanski would face scrutiny if he got injured via a designed run, considering he underwent offseason shoulder surgery, describing it as a "lose-lose situation, honestly."
None of the advanced stats reflect handsomely on Watson. His 2.86 seconds time-to-throw is ninth-worst in the league, per Next Gen Stats, which could help explain why he's taking so many sacks. His average completed air yards (CAY) is 4.2, 3.3 lower than his intended air yards (IAY) of 7.5. That negative 3.3 margin is third-worst in the league, better than just struggling young quarterbacks Caleb Williams (-4.1) and Will Levis (-3.4).
The Browns don't possess any realistic escapes from the five-year, fully guaranteed $230 million deal they awarded Watson ahead of 2022 unless his alleged off-field situations violate the terms of his contract. The most straightforward (and depressing) solution if Watson continues struggling is to make him the league's most expensive backup quarterback. The Browns roster a capable veteran No. 2 in Winston, who has started 80 career contests and thrown for 141 touchdowns versus 99 interceptions. Winston could provide the offense with the spark they need.
Facing the Raiders could be a do-or-die showing for Watson. After all, veteran journeyman Andy Dalton carved up that same Raiders defense for 316 points, 319 passing yards, and three touchdowns last week. If Watson's form doesn’t experience a swift change in fortune, Stefanski should be tempted to insert Winston.
