The New York Giants signed quarterback Drew Lock to a one-year contract worth $5 million earlier this week. Seahawks general manager John Schneider, who attempted to re-sign Lock, is claiming that he opted to sign with the Giants because they offered him an opportunity to compete for the starting role. That certainly qualifies as intriguing. Daniel Jones should be the Giants' Week 1 starter, but we wouldn't be surprised if Lock eventually replaced him in the lineup.
Jones is scheduled to enter the second season of a four-year, $160 million extension. The Giants signed Jones to this ill-advised extension after he enjoyed a career-best campaign in 2022, leading them to the postseason and a road playoff victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Jones failed to repeat those efforts in 2023 after signing the contract.
Jones regressed while dealing with injury. He appeared in a career-low six games before suffering a season-ending torn ACL. Jones was ineffective even when on the field, throwing for just two touchdowns with six interceptions while averaging a personal-worst 5.7 yards per attempt. Jones was sacked 30 times in six games and the Giants won three fewer contests (6) than the dreamlike year prior (9). Jones’ quarterback rating plummeted from 92.5 to 70.5.
The Giants couldn't realistically escape Jones' bloated contract this offseason. Outright releasing Jones would have created $69.3 million in dead cap charges while sacrificing an additional $22.2 million in immediate cap space according to Spotrac. A post-June 1 designation doesn't offer any savings either. The Giants should allow Jones an early-season opportunity to recapture his 2022 form, but significant improvement must be shown if he's to fend off challenges from Lock.
An injury guarantee could eventually be Jones' undoing in East Rutherford. Jones' contract possesses a $23 million injury guarantee that could trigger for the 2025 campaign if he's hurt during the 2024 season. Every week that Jones fails to showcase franchise quarterback traits will inch him closer to the bench. If the Giants aren't in postseason contention, they'll possess very little reason to play Jones and significantly more reasons to ensure they can rid themselves of his contract.
We've seen similar situations play out in recent memory. The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders benched Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo, respectively, down the stretch of the season to protect themselves against injury guarantees. Both Wilson and Garoppolo were released from their contracts this offseason. It's easy to envision a similar scenario playing out with Jones next season if things aren't going according to plan on the field.
Releasing Jones next March would create $19.3 million in cap space while triggering a manageable dead-money charge of $22.2 million. That's significantly more realistic than releasing Jones this offseason. Giants general manager Joe Schoen will possess the flexibility necessary to cut ties with Jones two seasons early. That's a possibility Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll will prefer to protect if Jones isn’t positioning them to compete for the NFC East division title.
The Giants' front office won't be thrilled that a rival general manager publicly revealed their potential line of thinking. It's difficult to envision Lock outright beating Jones for the starting gig in training camp, but there's a scenario where Lock could swiftly replace Jones. That appears to be the path the Giants' 2024 campaign is headed toward.
