The Kansas City Chiefs will meet the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII this Sunday. In a rematch of the Chiefs' 31-20 Super Bowl LIV victory, familiar foes will lock horns once again. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo will be pitted against Kyle Shanahan and Steve Wilks. Master manipulators of the play sheet, these four outstanding coaches are tasked with formulating a winning game plan.
The Chiefs and 49ers possess slightly different paths to victory. Gaining the coaching advantage will make the difference. We've identified potential winning strategies for both franchises.
CHIEFS
RELY ON PATRICK MAHOMES + ELITE IN-FORM DEFENSE
Big-time moments are for big-time players. The Chiefs will count on superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes to deliver the franchise's second consecutive Lombardi Trophy and third overall in five years. Mahomes has been whatever the Chiefs have needed him to be throughout the postseason.
In a three-point victory over the Bills in their divisional-round matchup, Mahomes was efficient as the margins got tighter, completing 73.9% of his passing attempts (17-of-23) and averaging 9.3 yards per completion, the second-highest mark of his 2023 season. As much as Kansas City's offense has lacked the explosive potential it carried in recent years, they scored 26 and 27 points, respectively, in their first two playoff wins. Against the Ravens, the offense took a backseat to an outstanding in-form defense, but Mahomes still attempted 39 passes and completed 76.9% of them for 241 yards and a touchdown.
With that said, the Chiefs likely wouldn't be here if not for several elite defensive performances. Spagnuolo's defense is allowing just 13.6 points per contest in three playoff victories. A defense that ranked 27th in takeaways (17) throughout the regular-season campaign created three turnovers against MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.
The 49ers have done an outstanding job protecting the football this season, but more than 57% of their turnovers occurred in defeats to the Ravens, Bengals, and Vikings. A brilliant defensive mind, Spagnuolo is arguably enjoying the most impressive postseason stint of his illustrious career. Expect the ever-creative Spagnuolo to throw the kitchen sink at Shanahan. Forcing San Francisco into mistakes would be a winning strategy for the Chiefs.
49ERS
LIMIT TURNOVERS + KEEP IT SIMPLE ON OFFENSE
The 49ers enter Sunday as slight favorites over the Chiefs because they possess the best overall roster in football. Starting quarterback Brock Purdy is executing the Shanahan system as good as any quarterback ever has. The results? The offense ranks first in DVOA thanks to a top-ranked pass attack and second-best ground game. The 49ers also rank first in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. Simply put, they've been a well-oiled machine thanks to Shanahan’s player-friendly offense and All-Pro-level talented playmakers.
Purdy possesses a wealth of resources at his disposal. Efficiently spreading the ball around to Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk is the obvious strategy. Taking what the opposition gives you is crucial when squaring off with a defense as aggressive and complex as the one Spagnuolo will field. Spagnuolo will look to present problems, and Shanahan will look to present solutions.
That's where Purdy must proceed with extreme caution. Purdy possesses one of the highest rates of turnover-worthy passing attempts across the entire league (3.5%), according to Pro Football Focus. The law of averages suggests Purdy was extremely lucky to escape the regular season with just 11 interceptions. For example, Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who threw 18 interceptions, had a lower turnover-worthy-play rate (3.0%) than Purdy did.
The 49ers have been extremely resilient throughout the postseason. In their divisional-round victory over the Packers, they scored 10 unanswered in the fourth quarter to overturn a 21-14 deficit. Their comeback efforts were even more impressive in the NFC Championship Game, where they once trailed the Lions 24-7 before rounding off 27 consecutive points in the second half. If Purdy avoids boneheaded mistakes, the 49ers should stay within striking distance of victory all game long.
