Imagine not knowing all 32 picks, including the six trades that will happen on Draft night. Could never be me!
This is my official mock draft for 2019, which includes trades for the first time this season. There may be changes made to it throughout the day on Wednesday, as we hear about pick trades and player-team predictions, but once we hit Thursday, this puppy will be locked in.
If you have any questions or complaints, as always, the subject of your ire rests smugly on his iron throne @BenjaminSolak on Twitter. Come say hello.
1: Oakland Raiders (trade via AZ)
Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
Jon Gruden traded Khalil Mack. Mike Mayock is a first-time GM looking to prove himself. They already acquired Antonio Brown. They're moving to Vegas. You can't tell me that trading for number one overall to take Kyler Murray is even nearly outside of the realm of possibilities for this Raiders team.
I expect the Raiders to at least be making speculative offers for the first overall pick, especially as Arizona continues to leak that they haven't made a decision at the spot just yet. It's a matter of Arizona's asking price, but if Oakland can move from 4 to 1 while still hanging on to one of their two remaining first-rounders -- and I think they can -- then we could have a serious deal in place.
Murray isn't the best fit for a traditional West Coast offense, but Gruden has shown a willingness early in his second crack at coaching to adjust concepts and blend styles to fit his team. With the the weapons Oakland has accrued, Kyler doesn't have to do too much too early, as he grows into the offense.
2: San Francisco 49ers
Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
This is the easiest prediction in the draft -- though that isn't saying much, as it's a tough class to predict. Unless something goes nuclear and Kyler doesn't go one, the Niners are taking Bosa here -- and if Kyler doesn't go first off the board, the Niners are trading back and letting someone else take Kyler at 2. Easy-peasy.
Bosa slots in as the starting EDGE opposite trade acquisition Dee Ford, which dumps DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, and Solomon Thomas into the interior of the line. Who starts where? It's a tough group to figure out, and I'm sure they'll field some trade calls during May and June, but there's nothing wrong with having too much defensive line talent.
3: New York Jets
Quinnen Williams, iDL, Alabama
So ol' Gregg wants a defensive tackle for his new team? Then take the best one in the draft -- that Quinnen Williams, not Ed Oliver. I love Oliver as much as the next guy, but I really struggle to see how a team can rationalize taking Oliver over Quinnen, and I expect the Jets to go for the higher-floor player accordingly.
I'll be interested to see the deployment of Quinnen, Leonard Williams, Henry Anderson, and Nathan Shepherd in what figures to be a crowded defensive tackle room -- don't forget Steve McLendon plugging up the nose as well. Will this team be traditionally 4-3, or work off of different alignments to get more of these playmakers on the field?
4: Arizona Cardinals (trade via OAK)
Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
If the Cardinals ride with Rosen, they have so much work to do on the offense, so I could see a lineman being the selection here -- but as it stands, I think they'll struggle to say no to Josh Allen. He's received Chandler Jones comparisons -- though I don't like those -- and you can see how he'd fit nicely in the 3-4 that Vance Joseph is bringing back to the desert.
Allen needs some time in the league to reach his potential, as I see it, but he'll have Jones and Terrell Suggs to learn from, which should help his developmental arc. The Cardinals have a chance to re-do the Haason Reddick pick here, and get it right -- I think they take it.
5: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Devin White, LB, LSU
I'm sure Tampa's hoping the QB market is enough that they can trade back from this spot, but I don't think it will be -- nor do I think they'll be too disappointed with their consolation prize. Kwon Alexander is gone in free agency, Lavonte David is reaching the twilight of his career, and new DC Todd Bowles loves his explosive linebackers.
Devin White fits the bill for what the Buccaneers need. This is too rich for me -- I have questions with backfield processing and tackling when it comes to White's film -- but he's valued in the Top-10 by the league. If not here, then it's Denver at 10.
6: New York Giants
Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
This pick would have been Montez Sweat if not for the enlarged heart revealed at the Combine that makes him a medical flag -- apparently, it's knocked him far down the Giants' board. Accordingly, we go to a player we know they have ranked highly in this class, and that's Daniel Jones.
As the heir apparent to Eli Manning, Jones is a good fit in a Pat Shurmur-led offensive because of his proficiency in the quick game and strong pre-snap ability. Jones' is much untested completing post-snap reads and attacking deep, and lacks ideal physical traits, so the ceiling is a bit lower for him than it is for the rest of the class. But if you think he's your QB, you gotta go get him.
7: Jacksonville Jaguars
Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
No team has done the work on Taylor that the Jaguars have, as they look for a long-term tackle to pair with Cam Robinson. Taylor and Robinson have a similar mauler vibe that appeals to Jacksonville's offensive philosophy and Tom Coughlin's demeanor, but both are still nimble and active in pass-protection -- really good young tackle duo here.
I took a long, hard look at the tight ends and EDGEs available. I think the Jaguars' interest in Taylor is just too great to overlook at this juncture, but this could really be a wild-card team in the Top-10.
8: Cincinnati Bengals (trade via DET)
Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
Which team will be willing to take the gamble on Haskins? I think the local team, Cincinnati, will see the value in a pure pocket-passer with a quick trigger and great short/intermediate accuracy -- new HC Zac Taylor saw that mold succeed in Los Angeles with Jared Goff, where he was previously the offensive coordinator.
It's a bad QB class, but that never stops teams from talking themselves into these passers and generating trade wars to go get them. I think picks 8 and 9 are great inflection points, as both Detroit and Buffalo likely look to move down, and Denver (10), Green Bay (12), and Miami (13) all represent wild cards in the market. Moving from 11 to 8 is a cheap price to pay to secure your guy.
9: Washington Redskins (trade via BUF)
Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
I don't know the Redskins' QB plans well -- there's a ton of conflicting reports out there, with the latest insisting that they have no interest in Josh Rosen. If they really can't acquire Rosen via trade, they simply must grab a young QB in this class. The team is dead in the water until they get a promising young player at the helm.
I think Washington tries to push up to 8 to grab Haskins over the Bengals, but accept the consolation price of Drew Lock at 9 overall. Lock's got a good arm, good mobility, and the ability to throw off-platform, which are nice building blocks to have -- but unless he takes a couple strides forward in accuracy, he'll struggle to stick. Interesting to see if he starts in Year 1, or if the Redskins bridge him with Case Keenum.
10: Denver Broncos
Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
Seems like the Broncos are willing to ride-or-die with Joe Flacco, missing out on the QB sweepstakes this year in favor of an impact 'backer like Bush. Vic Fangio keeps no secrets when he discusses the sideline-to-sideline thumper he needs at the middle of his 3-4 defense, and Bush fits that mold, as a wicked explosive linebacker who takes great angles to the football.
With Bush struggle due to size? If the Broncos can get the interior right in front of him to keep him clean, he can be really effective in Fangio's system. They have to be willing to invest heavily at DT, where they're currently wanting for talent, to make it all work.
11: Atlanta Falcons (trade via DET)
Ed Oliver, iDL, Houston
If there's a team who isn't bothered by undersized players in the front seven, boy is it Atlanta. I'd be fearful of starting two sub-300 tackles next to each other in Grady Jarrett and Oliver, but a rotation with last year's third-round selection Deadrin Senat may help mitigate that concern. Imagine fronts with all three on the field at the same time!
Oliver's an elite penetrator and his traits are off the charts, but he won't be everyone's cup of tea. Reports that Atlanta loves him and is willing to trade up for him ring true, however -- they pair with Detroit, who already bumped back in the Cincinnati trade, and is looking for even more capital.
12: Green Bay Packers
Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
The more I think about it, the more I think Dillard is OT2 off the board -- even could be OT1, if not for the love I think the Jaguars have for Jawaan Taylor. Teams are going to love the athletic ability and fluidity in space, and you can hardly blame them for that.
Tackle isn't the biggest need for the Packers, but they're going to need a starter soon, as Bryan Bulaga hits free agency next offseason. I see the needs at safety and tight end, even the need for WR or EDGE depth -- but Day 2 is great for those positions in this class. Starting tackles cost early picks.
13: Miami Dolphins
Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
Goodness! This team has fewer EDGEs than a...dull knife? I don't know. I don't have a good metaphor here.
Now that a new coaching staff is in place, I expect the leash is much shorter on Charles Harris, the first-round selection now entering his third season. With Robert Quinn and Cameron Wake on their way, this team desperately needs an infusion of rush talent -- enter Burns, one of the best pure pass-rushers we've seen in a couple seasons now.
While Burns doesn't have ideal size, he can rip the high-side rush in a way few can, and I struggle to believe the defensive-minded Brian Flores won't value that skill. Burns' presence immediately improves the Dolphins defense.
14: Detroit Lions (trade via ATL)
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Can hardly blame the Lions for loving a player like Hockenson, even with the trepidation around Round 1 tight ends for this franchise. They certainly don't want to be stuck at 8 taking a player they anticipate falling due to positional value, so the double trade-back makes a lot of sense, as long as they feel Green Bay won't snag their prize at 12.
Hockenson's a dominant player in the trenches and excellent receiver, with room to grow in both areas as his body continues to grow and his technique continues to improve. He's high-floor and high-ceiling, with a great separation profile to shine in Detroit's quick game offense. As he develops more of a downfield receiving presence, he can become one of the top tight ends in this league.
15: Buffalo Bills (trade via WAS)
Christian Wilkins, iDL, Clemson
Huge win for Buffalo here, as they move back and still get the player they'd likely target at nine overall. Wilkins is a high-character, locker room guy who dominated at Clemson for multiple seasons, immediately slotting in as the pass-rushing 3-technique opposite Harrison Phillips and Star Lotulelei.
I don't like Wilkins this high, but I get the infatuation with his versatility, explosiveness, and on-field demeanor. For Sean McDermott and Buffalo, they couldn't create a more "Bills" player in a lab. Already with two fourths and two fifths, the added capital from the Washington trade gives the Bills a ton of firepower to move up during the early selections to grab impact starters.
16: Carolina Panthers
Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
I still don't have a great bead on how exactly the Panthers feel about their interior offensive line -- namely, would they improve on LG Greg Van Roten with a first-rounder -- but I do know they want tackle depth. Daryl Williams is only on a one-year prove-it deal, and his health inspires no front office; Taylor Moton is a quality tackle, but a player they may want to move to guard long-term. (Don't as me why.)
Accordingly, Williams makes a lot of sense. Early on, he could challenge for a guard spot as his only avenue to playing time, but the tackle competition will be open in 2020 when Williams likely leaves in free agency. Given Williams' outspoken resistance to playing guard, this may be a tricky situation to navigate, but the value is too good here.
17: New York Giants
Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan
This torn labrum thing is a fascinating development, considering how late it dawned in the process, and that Gary apparently is good to go in Year 1. While I'm sure some teams will steer clear of what could become a tricky situation, the Giants seem like just the team to bungle a developmental player that requires a delicate touch.
Gary's a really fun fit in James Bettcher's multiple, attacking defense -- he'll move around on the defensive line a ton, and win on stunts and twists. That's a great deployment for him, as is the outside run responsibilities he'll get playing next to Dalvin Tomlinson and B.J. Hill. Great fit, if the player is healthy.
18: Minnesota Vikings
Garrett Bradbury, iOL, NC State
Unoriginal with the pick here, but you can hardly blame me -- it's a snug fit! Bradbury and incumbent Pat Elflein are both best as centers, which does present an issue, but with the needs at both guard spots -- count me among the Josh Kline doubters -- both Elflein and Bradbury will end up as starters for the Vikings by Week 1.
The Vikings want to move to a run-oriented approach on offense, and in order to do so, they must improve their interior offensive line to execute zone combinations and create flow for RB Dalvin Cook to read. This pick indicates that philosophy shift -- while Spielman's passing over of a Round 1 corner indicates another philosophy shift, though that one is likely less about the team as a whole.
19: Tennessee Titans
Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
Love to see Ferrell fall this far, and it's a run-the-card-to-the-table pick for the Titans, as I see it. Ferrell's a great fit as a wide-alignment rusher and an excellent foil to last year's second-rounder in Harold Landry. I love his developed hand usage up the arc, recognition of sets to work back inside, and his power.
Ferrell is ready to compete in Year 1. With some nice veteran signings, the Titans are too -- as long as Marcus Mariota can get the job done. Fascinating team to watch in 2019, as I see it.
20: Pittsburgh Steelers
Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
Weird pre-draft process for Greedy Williams, who apparently has had very few team visits and workouts -- not something you expect for any player in the Draft, let alone a first-round potential. Williams' natural talent is mouthwatering, and his 2017 film clearly indicates a technically-sound player who has the want-to to tackle and compete.
But 2018 was up-and-down in terms of disinterested play and lazy reps. If a team believes they can keep Williams engaged in the game and competitive with WR1s, he has a huge value in the 20s. Pittsburgh, in desperate need of corner help (as is a yearly occurrence) can't afford to pass up on that.
21: Indianapolis Colts (trade via SEA)
Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
I really struggle to believe that Sweat falls out of the first round, and here's why: it only takes one team to stop the fall. The one team who has him graded as a first-rounder (which all teams do) and doesn't view his enlarged heart as a career-threatening condition will select him in Round 1 -- and here, I have them trading up to go get him.
Chris Ballard is an aggressive, attacking GM who is unafraid of zigging when others zag -- and with the Jets' second-rounder in the fold for Indianapolis, they can afford to take a high-risk swing in Round 1 and still get a high-floor starter in Round 2. Sweat is an instant starter and huge upgrade on the EDGE for the Colts, as he, Kemoko Turay, and Tyquan Lewis replenish what was a bereft pass-rush just two seasons ago.
22: Baltimore Ravens
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
The fall of Metcalf ends here at Baltimore, who welcomes him with open arms -- may even trade up a bit to get him, if they're worried about Seattle making a pick at 21, or trading out (as they did) with a team targeting Metcalf.
It's tough to know exactly what new GM Eric DeCosta is going to value, but if you want to develop a young quarterback -- and the Ravens need Lamar Jackson to take strides as a passer -- then they need to get him a primary target on the outside. Metcalf's size, explosiveness, and catch radius project as a dominant X at the next level.
This is a huge pick for Baltimore.
23: Houston Texans
Cody Ford, OT, Oklahoma
Can the Texans go anywhere besides offensive line? Probably -- if they were the team to snag a Darnell Savage or Johnathan Abram here, I wouldn't be shocked. But for the life and love of Deshaun Watson, let's pray Cody Ford falls to them and they don't overthink it.
A dominant right tackle at college who projects best to the outside at the next level, Ford's size, explosiveness, and body control make him a mighty task to handle in the trenches. Longer and quicker rushers can give him issues, but those guys give everyone issues on the outside. Ford is an instant starter and upgrade at multiple spots for Houston.
24: Arizona Cardinals (trade via OAK)
Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
Making their second pick after the Murray trade with Oakland, the Cardinals shock the world by grabbing the Oklahoma offensive weapon they wanted all along (just kidding) -- Hollywood Brown.
What with Larry Fitzgerald on his last last legs, the Cardinals must continue pouring resources into the WR position, especially as Kliff Kingsbury's offense wants to run speedsters out there to wear down defensive backs and hit on big plays. Brown fits that bill to a tee, becoming Arizona's primary playmaker on screens, meshes and nines.
25: Philadelphia Eagles
Jeffery Simmons, iDL, Mississippi State
The Eagles' primary target just got poached out from the grasp of their talons at 24, so they scramble to take Jeffery Simmons, the most talented player remaining on the board and a potential huge value for them.
The Eagles love to rotate pass-rusher across their defensive line, so the snaps will be there for Simmons even as he starts behind Malik Jackson and Fletcher Cox. He may not be ready to contribute in Week 1, but the Eagles' team is tooled up for a long playoff run, and Simmons will be healthy -- and fresh -- when his number is called late in the season.
26: Seattle Seahawks (trade via IND)
Juan Thornhill, S/CB, Virginia
As a result of the Indianapolis trade, we have Seattle taking their first Round 1 selection at 26 (though will they even make their second?). I'd be shocked to see Seattle stay at 21 and 29, and utterly flabbergasted if they actually make two first-round selections. It just isn't their way.
The Seahawks loving Thornhill should come at no surprise, given his elite athleticism, length, and CB/S versatility, I think the Seahawks will try him out almost everywhere on the back-end, to see where he fits best on a secondary that is unrecognizable compared to the star-studded backfield the Seahawks touted just two years ago.
27: Oakland Raiders
Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
Strong media push for this fit in the wake of the Marshawn Lynch retirement, though it's unclear how much of that is seeing 2 + 2 and making 4. The media has wanted/expected Josh Jacobs to go Round 1 for a while now, though I'm still not sold that will be the case.
But if it is, Jacobs makes a ton of sense in Oakland, given his physical running style and big-play ability -- they lacked that last season out of their backfield. Jacobs and Murray is a massive facelift for this backfield, as the offense is rebuilt in the image of Gruden.
28: Los Angeles Chargers
Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State
The Chargers showed a clear interest in investing in the offensive line in the beginning of Anthony Lynn's tenure; they have a potential needs at both right tackle and right guard; and the Chargers really love drafting Senior Bowl players. Bring me Risner and let's go kick some tail.
I think Risner is worth a look at tackle, where his length and technique both shine. Players with slower feet and less explosiveness than Risner have survived out there, though there is some concern with Risner's balance when faced with shifty rushers. Either way, love his energy and tone-setting aggression.
29: Buffalo Bills (trade via SEA)
Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Seattle trades back again! I don't believe this team will make both of their first-round picks in the slightest, while I do expect the Bills to be aggressive in using their late picks to move up for impact starters. Buffalo is a team on the upswing with only a few gaps left to plug, and a pass-catching TE is one of those spots.
Love the fit for Fant, who fell a bit because of a lack of dire tight end need in the teens of this class. Buffalo leapfrogs New England, who may have been eyeing Fant, as well as Green Bay, who's looking at life after Jimmy Graham next season. The Iowa product has field-stretching ability that works really well with Josh Allen's strengths and Brian Daboll's vertical style of offense.
30: Green Bay Packers
Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
Abram is the second safety off the board in a thick, talented class that's hard to predict. While I hear the cries that Darnell Savage might go Round 1, I think the Packers will prefer Abram's fit, as Savage is more so a nickel/overhang defender, while Abram can really given them a thumper in the box.
I personally don't value Abram as a first-rounder, but it's clear the NFL is big on him, and the talking heads have been touting his first-round destiny for months now. Best not to ignore that long-enduring buzz in the favor of late-breaking rumors.
31: Los Angeles Rams
Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple
We know the NFL is weird on this corner class, what with players like Byron Murphy and DeAndre Baker still on the board when Ya-Sin leaves as CB2. It isn't a great class, and you need strong scheme fits to justify a Round 1 selection.
Ya-Sin makes a lot of sense in the Aqib Talib/Marcus Peters mold of players, given his aggressive physical play style and quickness in transition. Talib is set to hit the free agent market next season, which gives the inexperienced Ya-Sin time to grow into an NFL starting role in Year 2.
32: New England Patriots
Chase Winovich, EDGE, Michigan
I entertained some of the remaining corners (Byron Murphy, DeAndre Baker) on the board here, but I ended up defaulting onto the Patriots' biggest need, which worries me -- they could never be so obvious, could they?
Winovich can put his hand in the dirt or rush from a two-point stance and is ready to contribute in Year 1. His presence helps the Patriots kick Michael Bennett to the inside, where he's most effective as a pass-rusher.