Post-Free Agency NFL Over/Unders For 2020

Photo: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to football, the analysis of roster moves knows no end.

Over the last week, we've written about what player additions and subtractions mean relative to the contracts they've signed and the impact of their talent. We've looked ahead to the draft and analyzed how some strategies may have changed due to free agency moves. Now it's time to look even further down the line to the regular season.

BetMGM recently released its updated over/under win totals for the 2020 NFL regular season. Though we still have the draft and any moves between now and the start of Week 1, it’s fun to see which needles have moved since the end of the 2019 season.

The people that make the books aren't in the business of losing money. When they put out these numbers, there's a lot of thought that goes into making each bet as two-sided and challenging as possible. But even then there are always some bets that look better than others.

Here are the current over/unders set post-free agency:

NFC West

  • Arizona Cardinals: 7
  • Seattle Seahawks: 9
  • Los Angeles Rams: 8.5
  • San Francisco 49ers: 10.5

NFC South

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9
  • Atlanta Falcons: 7.5
  • New Orleans Saints: 10
  • Carolina Panthers: 5.5

NFC North

  • Green Bay Packers: 9
  • Minnesota Vikings: 8.5
  • Chicago Bears: 8
  • Detroit Lions: 6.5

NFC East

  • New York Giants: 6
  • Washington Redskins: 5
  • Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5
  • Dallas Cowboys: 9.5

AFC East

  • New York Jets: 6.5
  • Buffalo Bills: 8.5
  • New England Patriots: 9.5
  • Miami Dolphins: 6

AFC North

  • Pittsburgh Steelers: 9
  • Baltimore Ravens: 11
  • Cleveland Browns: 8
  • Cincinnati Bengals: 5

AFC South

  • Indianapolis Colts: 8.5
  • Houston Texans: 7.5
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: 5
  • Tennessee Titans: 8.5

AFC West

  • Los Angeles Chargers: 7.5
  • Denver Broncos: 7.5
  • Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5
  • Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5

Bet The Over

Kansas City Chiefs

Over 11.5 wins? That's a pretty bold bet, but I do believe the Chiefs finish the season with 12 or 13 wins as it stands right now. Their offense, which was near unstoppable during their playoff run, is returning most of its starters. Kansas City lost some pieces on the defensive side in free agency but retained Chris Jones via the franchise tag and will have the chance to add a good defensive player at No. 31 in the first round.

Arizona Cardinals

A full offseason of head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray working together carries a lot of weight and so does the recent addition of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. If the offensive line takes a jump, this is an eight-win team, if you ask me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The over/under does seem high for the Buccaneers, even with Tom Brady, but I'm betting on it to be just over at 10.

Tampa Bay’s offense is one of the best in the NFL, and with Brady there, the turnovers should drop drastically. On top of that, the Buccaneers’ young defense still has Todd Bowles as its coordinator and really started to turn it on at the end of the year. Momentum couldn't be stronger for this team.

Bet The Under

Chicago Bears

The quarterback position means everything, and I don’t believe in the plan the Bears are projecting right now. Whether it's Mitch Trubisky or Nick Foles, I don't think the Bears' defense will be enough to get them to .500 this season.

Los Angeles Rams

The lack of faith in the quarterback position will be a theme for these under bets.

The Rams advanced a lot of checks over the last few years, trading top-50 draft picks for veteran, contributing players to vie for a championship. They got close in 2018 but came up just short. Now they're having to pay the price.

Quarterback Jared Goff has not given us a reason to believe he can be the kind of player who can make up for as many talent deficiencies as the Rams have, especially on the offensive line.

New England Patriots

I understand that it is Bill Belichick we're talking about here, but 9.5 wins for a team that might be starting Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer or a rookie quarterback?

The Patriots roster wasn't good last year and with no Brady, it looks even worse now. New England won't be terrible — I believe it'll still compete for a division title for most of the year — but it's hard to see double-digit wins.

Written By:

Trevor Sikkema

Senior NFL Draft Analyst

Senior NFL Draft Analyst for The Draft Network. Co-Host of the Locked On NFL Draft Podcast.

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