How does an organization balance trying to win with remaining patient on its long-term vision? It is not common for teams to be both competing for a postseason spot and trying to accommodate for the struggles of a young quarterback. However, that is where the Indianapolis Colts find themselves right now with Anthony Richardson.
Drafted with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Richardson was always seen as a prospect who may need some time to acclimate to the professional level. After all, he was only a full-time starter for one year in his college career and only completed 53.8% of his passes in that season. But he was also an elite athlete who general managers could dream about as a dual-threat quarterback. Indianapolis felt comfortable starting him right away in 2023, but after suffering a concussion and later an AC joint tear, he only appeared in four games during his rookie season.
Considering the Colts managed to finish 9-8 and were one game away from winning the AFC South with Gardner Minshew starting in place of Richardson, you could argue extra pressure was placed on Richardson heading into this season; he not only needed to prove himself at the NFL level but do so for a team that clearly could compete for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, injuries got in the way once again; Richardson suffered a hip injury in the team’s Week 4 victory versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, forcing the team to start Joe Flacco for the next two games.
Although Flacco impressed in his two-and-a-half games under center, the 3-3 Colts remained committed to Richardson, who made his return in Week 7. The results over the next two weeks left a lot to be desired:
The situation became extremely troublesome during Indianapolis’ Week 8 loss to the division-rival Texans. Not only did Richardson complete just 31.3% of his pass attempts, but he drew notable criticism for “tapping out” of the game for one play after being fatigued.
Watch: #Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson explains why he subbed out of the game in the third quarter pic.twitter.com/1aHHUAbOBV
— WISH-TV News (@WISHNews8) October 27, 2024
With a strong backup option in Flacco and the fate of the season in jeopardy at 4-4, the Colts responded to this tumultuous game by benching Richardson for the veteran quarterback. After the team scored just three offensive points not off turnovers and accumulated their worst expected points total (-9.87) in a 21-13 loss to the Vikings, their short-term outlook did not get better. Matchups against the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions over the next three weeks do not make matters easier, but their other games leave the possibility of a postseason push open:
Week 10: vs Bills
Week 11: at Jets
Week 12: vs Lions
Week 13: at Patriots
Week 15: at Broncos
Week 16: vs Titans
Week 17: at Giants
Week 18: vs Jaguars
Even with potential losses against the Bills and Lions, there is a case the Colts could run the table in their other games. That being said, they also remain two games back of the Houston Texans for the AFC South title and have already lost the tiebreaker to them, leaving them with very little margin for error. In essence, their short-term outlook could not be more complicated, which only makes the balancing act between this season and the future even murkier.
Although Richardson has the lowest expected completion percentage in the NFL, per NFL Next Gen Stats, he is still underachieving that expectation by the largest amount (-12.5%). His 5.3% interception rate is also more than three times higher than that of Flacco’s (1.5%). Add in what Flacco accomplished for the Cleveland Browns last season and his veteran experience, and it is easy to see why Colts head coach Shane Steichen feels more comfortable with Flacco. That being said, where does that leave Richardson?
The general rule of thumb in the NFL is that you need to play in order to develop, and Richardson has started just 10 games in his professional career. Add in his limited experience in college, and the sample size is far too small to gauge his status as a potential franchise quarterback. If the Colts stick with Flacco for the remainder of the season, they’d enter this offseason not having any true idea whether Richardson can be their starter moving forward, which would not be ideal for the organization or the player. Really, it would simply leave them in the exact same spot as this past offseason, just with one less year on Richardson’s rookie contract.
The two situations the Colts should theoretically want to prevent are either giving up on Richardson too early or letting the 2025 season be impacted by more questions at the quarterback position. The sooner Richardson is back in the lineup this season, the sooner they will be able to gain the clarity needed to prevent both of those situations. There are a lot of factors an organization has to consider when managing a locker room full of players wanting to do whatever it takes to win and also developing young players. I would note, however, that the Colts still have remained competitive when starting Richardson, who provides tremendous upside as a runner as well; competing now and doing what is best for the future does not have to be mutually exclusive. Remember the Bills once had to remain patient with Josh Allen during his early-career struggles while being a playoff-caliber team, and I would guess they are quite happy with how that turned out.
Without understanding the locker-room dynamics, it is hard to judge how the Colts have handled Richardson, especially since we really have no idea what type of player he could develop into at the professional level. It would be ideal to eventually find that out, and Indianapolis needs to be careful to not let too many weeks go by before they miss out on that opportunity. Regardless, this dynamic is one to monitor extremely closely throughout the rest of the season.
