We've reached the approximate midway point of the 2024 NFL season. The Most Valuable Player (MVP) race has been a tight-knit one, with various contenders jockeying for position. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen should be considered the current favorite.
Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is certainly a viable contender. Patrick Mahomes is a potential winner, despite lackluster numbers, because his Kansas City Chiefs are still undefeated. Jared Goff is a value pick that has the Detroit Lions atop the NFC at 6-1. Allen has been better than them all.
Allen doesn’t lead quarterbacks in any particular category, but he’s been consistent across the board. The former Wyoming standout ranks fifth in touchdown passes (14), seventh in yards per attempt (7.9), 11th in yards (1,766), and 22nd in completion percentage (64.1%). Allen has also only thrown one interception all campaign long despite attempting 223 passes.
His 14:1 TD:INT ratio is the best in the league. Justin Herbert is the only other season-long starting quarterback with one interception. Allen's adjusted quarterback rating of 73.7 ranks fourth-best in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Info. His 107.6 passer rating ranks third, behind just Jackson and Goff.
Josh Allen averaged +0.76 EPA per dropback in the Bills route over the Jaguars, his 2nd-highest mark in a game in his career (including playoffs).
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 24, 2024
Allen threw all 4 TDs in the first half to four different receivers, all on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds.#JAXvsBUF | @BuffaloBills pic.twitter.com/d4dUZzADYS
Above all, the Bills are 6-2 and are running away with their fifth consecutive AFC East title. They're currently tied for the third-best record in the entire NFL. As per usual, Allen has them playing like annual Super Bowl contenders. Like every campaign, he’ll ultimately be judged on Buffalo’s postseason success, but MVP is a regular-season award. The Bills certainly appear capable of finally getting over the hump.
The analytics agree Allen has been fantastic this season. Expected Points Added (EPA) has become a big-time analytical point for accurately assessing quarterback play. Allen’s EPA per play (+0.31) ranks first in the NFL, per Unexpected Points. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is a close No. 2 (+0.30).
2024 QB efficiency (EPA/play) through SNF, min 120 dropbacks
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) October 28, 2024
1) Josh Allen +0.31
2) Jayden Daniels +0.30
3) Lamar Jackson +0.28
4) Joe Burrow +0.22
5) Kyler Murray +0.20
6) Brock Purdy +0.19
7) Baker Mayfield +0.18
8) Jared Goff +0.17
9) Jalen Hurts +0.16
10) Derek Carr +0.16…
Allen has been aggressive while limiting turnovers. His aggressive percentage (AGG%) of 18.4% is fourth-highest in the league among quarterbacks that have started every game this season, according to Next Gen Stats. AGG% tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes into tight coverage, defined as a defender within one yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion.
Despite being aggressive, Allen also has a positive completion percentage above expectation (CPOE). His 64.1% completion percentage is 1.7 higher than his expected percentage (62.4%). He’s flashed weekly growth with a group of pass catchers that lost his two most familiar targets in the offseason.
Allen leads all quarterbacks in big-time throws this season with 18, according to Pro Football Focus. His big-ime throw rate of 7.5% also ranks first. Allen’s average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.9 ranks sixth among QBs who have started every game.
Allen has also been elite at avoiding sacks in the pocket. One of the game’s premier off-script creators, his pressure-to-sack rate of 11.2 percent only trails Jordan Love and Derek Carr, who have both missed time due to injury.
Allen is playing high-level football. The Bills' franchise quarterback has often been a front-runner for MVP, but has typically lost out to Mahomes or Jackson. Allen should finally capture MVP honors in 2024.
