We've reached the approximate midway point of the 2024 NFL season. The Offensive Rookie of the Year race has been as exciting as advertised. Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels should be considered the current favorite.
It's essentially a two-man race between Daniels and Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. Daniels and Williams squared off in Week 8 in a matchup that pitted the top two overall selections against each other. Washington claimed a walk-off victory after a once-in-a-lifetime Hail Mary prayer was answered.
A;FK;JD;KJF;LAKEJFLKJVAL;KEJL;JF;EFJ;LFAKJ
— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
JAYDEN DANIELS HAIL MARY! @COMMANDERS WIN! pic.twitter.com/BsQ0Z84Rko
Daniels currently ranks second in the league among all starting quarterbacks in completion percentage (71.8%). He's shown terrific command of Kliff Kingsbury's offense while being a highly efficient quarterback. Daniels also ranks 12th in passing yards (1,736), fifth in average yards per attempt (8.4), and is tied for 22nd in touchdown passes (7).
Daniels has also only thrown two interceptions despite attempting 206 passes. MVP candidates Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are the only quarterbacks with 200-plus attempts who have thrown two or fewer interceptions. That’s good company. Daniels' adjusted quarterback rating of 72.7 ranks fifth-best in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Info. His 104.3 passer rating ranks seventh.
Above all, the Commanders are 6-2 and sit atop the NFC East. They currently are tied for the third-best record in the entire NFL. Daniels has them playing like legitimate postseason contenders. This Commanders franchise finished 4-13 last season and earned the No. 2 overall selection in the 2024 Draft. Last year's starting quarterback (Sam Howell) led the league in interceptions (21) and sacks taken (65). Daniels, who has helped transform the offensive line with his athleticism, has overseen a stark turnaround.
The analytics agree that Daniels has been outstanding this season. His average completed air yards (CAY) of 8.2 is above average and is tied for eighth-best among all QBs, according to Next Gen Stats. Daniels has been aggressive with an intended air yards (IAY) of 8.2.
Daniels also has the second-highest completion percentage above expectation (CPOE) in the league. His 71.8% completion percentage is exactly five points higher than his expected percentage (66.8%). He’s flashed weekly growth with a young group of pass catchers.
Daniels' completion rate (72%), yards per attempt (8.4), net yards per attempt (8.0), and Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback ranks first among all rookie quarterbacks through eight weeks of the season since at least 2000, according to data collected by Tru Media Sports. Multiple data points would quantify Daniels' performance to date as historic.
EPA has become a big-time analytical point for accurately assessing quarterback play. Daniels' EPA per play (+0.30) ranks second in the NFL, per Unexpected Points. Only Allen is ahead of Daniels by the finest margin (+0.31).
Daniels has completely transformed the Commanders’ offense (and the entire organization, really). That's what excellent rookie quarterbacks do. Williams has been fantastic in Chicago and is a rightful contender, but Daniels is running away with Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
