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NFL Draft

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

  • The Draft Network
  • October 1, 2021
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In addition to my picks and research which you can hear on the Hot Read Hits Podcast, here are some Week 4 notes on why I'm targeting these games, courtesy of BetPrep:

By Tommy “The Hitman”

Giants (+7.5) & NYG/NO UNDER 42

My Power Rank was NO by 6.5. The Saints are hiding their passing game with an offense that isn’t clicking. Winston has just 20, 22, and 21 pass attempts. The Saints are averaging 21.3 yards per possession, ahead of only the Bears (19.8 yards).

The Giants offense is likely to be hamstrung by only somewhat healthy WR Kenny Golladay facing NO’s top CB Marshon Lattimore, who’s surrendered an anemic 42.6 passer rating on throws. Golladay ran fewer Week 3 routes than Kadarius Toney.

This is the Saints' first game back in New Orleans in a month due to damage caused by Hurricane Ida. 

Six of the last seven Saints games with Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill as the starter have gone under with only one game over 41 combined points (45 at Philly). And Giants games have gone under 15 of the last 19 with Jason Garrett as the OC. 

The Giants are likely without WR Sterling Shepard, WR Darius Slayton. They are on their fourth LG in as many weeks. Golladay has not been 100% all year. LB Blake Martinez is out for the year.

The Saints are still without LT Armstead and C McCoy. But Daniel Jones continues to struggle against pressure and the Saints are top 10 in most major pass-rushing categories. Given the cluster NYG offensive injuries, the lack of explosiveness for the Saints, and inability to get a big lead, plus offensive line injuries, a low total seems likely. In a low total game where the Saints project to run the ball heavily, getting over a touchdown is huge. 

Take the points with the Giants and the under. 

Six-Point Teaser: Chiefs (-1) / Seahawks (+9)

You only want to play a teaser when going through the key numbers of 3 and 7 like we are here.

Why The Chiefs

The Eagles will not blitz, likely opting to sit back against KC, which is the way to defend them. The Chargers did what we expected and played two-high shell coverage all game, but they also got home with four rushers, a cocktail that allowed them to hold Mahomes to 5.9 yards per pass attempt (YPA). Mahomes was pressured on 42% of his dropbacks despite the Chargers not blitzing on a single one, per Pro Football Focus. The Chiefs can expect another zone-based approach that will not send blitzers given the Eagles have sent an extra pass rusher a league-low 5.1% of the time (league average is 24.8%).

Another big Travis Kelce game is coming; Kelce has opened the season with games of 6-76-2, 7-109-1, and 7-104-0. The Eagles opened the season keeping Kyle Pitts (4-31-0) and George Kittle (4-17-0) in check, but just allowed Dallas tight ends to catch eight passes for 94 yards and a pair of touchdowns on Monday night. Expecting more two-high safety looks and an effort to limit big passing plays, Kelce should be an intermediate workhorse again.

The Eagles’ pass defense is showing cracks. After facing lesser QBs in Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo, Dak Prescott clipped them on Monday night for a 9.2 YPA, with three TDs.

It’s a short week for Philly and Kansas City is desperate coming off back-to-back losses. Andy Reid possibly will not be 100% prepared after staying in hospital for half the week. 

The Chiefs are on a woeful 2-12 ATS run. KC hasn’t won a regular-season game by more than six points since Week 8 of the 2020 season.

However, Philly is without its starting LT, LG, and RG. DE Brandon Graham is out for the year. 

The Chiefs are still an elite team who should have max motivation in this game. 

Why The 49ers

My power rank says the Niners should be favored by 2.75

Seattle is playing slower: Seahawks situation-neutral seconds per snap tanked to 33.1, and their situation-neutral, no-huddle rate slipped to 6% in Week 3. 

The Seahawks defense is struggling: After allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt to Carson Wentz in Week 1, it allowed 8.7 Y/A to Ryan Tannehill and 8.5 Y/A to Kirk Cousins. After holding the Colts backfield to 90 rushing yards on 26 yards in Week 1, Seattle has since allowed 182 yards on the ground to Derrick Henry and 138 yards rushing to Minnesota backs a week ago, with backup Alexander Mattison rushing 26 times for 112 yards in place of the injured Dalvin Cook.

Russell Wilson is still playing elite ball. He’s on pace for career highs in completion rate (73.3%) and passing yards (5,071) while leading the league in yards per pass attempt (10.4) and QB rating (133.6).

The Niners are painfully short on the backend with No. 1 CB Jason Verrett (ACL) done for the season, Week 3 starting CB Josh Norman battling a bruised lung, and slot CB K’Waun Williams (calf) out multiple weeks. So the 49ers’ pass defense looks ripe for the picking.

Verdict: Max-focus and effort should be expected from a Seattle team that does not lose by the margin often with Wilson at QB. The back-door cover is always wide open against a bad 49ers secondary that D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should dominate. 

Pair the Seahawks and Chiefs in the six-point teaser.

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