Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in passing touchdowns with 41 scores in 2022. The second-closest contender threw six fewer touchdowns than Mahomes did. It represented the second time Mahomes has led the NFL in that category after throwing a career-high 50 touchdowns in 2018.

With training camp on the horizon, it’s time to look ahead to some never-too-early potential passing touchdown leaders. Several trigger-happy quarterbacks will attempt to throw for 40-plus touchdowns in 2023. That’s likely what it’ll take to dethrone Mahomes.

BetOnline’s NFL futures prop betting landscape for the 2023 passing touchdowns leader has taken shape. The NFL is in its golden era of quarterback performances. The top options shake out as follows:

Patrick Mahomes (+300)
Joe Burrow (+475)
Josh Allen (+500)
Aaron Rodgers (+800)
Justin Herbert (+1000)
Tua Tagovailoa (+1600)
Dak Prescott (+1600)
Russell Wilson (+2000)
Kirk Cousins (+2500)
Trevor Lawrence (+2500)
Jared Goff (+2500)

THE FAVORITE AND MY PICK: PATRICK MAHOMES

Mahomes is the only quarterback to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns twice since 2018. There’s nothing tangible to suggest the Chiefs’ passing offense will falter throughout 2023. They averaged a league-best 297.8 passing yards per contest last season.

Deniers can fret over changes across the offensive line, and at receiver, but I’m generally unconcerned. Mahomes still has head coach Andy Reid pulling the strings and Travis Kelce as a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The Chiefs will field a top-ranking passing offense for a sixth consecutive campaign.

Projecting continued success for Mahomes and his supporting cast is a straightforward process. Mahomes finished first in passing touchdowns despite the Chiefs attempting a fifth-ranked 651 passes. If Reid’s offense becomes even slightly more pass-happy, it may be easy for Mahomes to lead the league in passing scores for a second straight year, and third overall.

THE NO. 1 CONTENDER: JOE BURROW

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow finished second in the NFL in passing touchdowns last season with 35. Burrow climbed into the top two after finishing eighth in 2021 despite throwing just one less score (34). Burrow has established himself as a solid bet to throw for 35-plus touchdowns in 2023.

That makes Burrow a worthy contender to displace Mahomes as the league’s leader. Burrow is still surrounded by an outstanding supporting cast that will make his job easier. Ja’Marr Chase appears ready to explode for a career-best campaign. Tee Higgins is scheduled to enter a contract season and is plenty motivated to secure a long-term extension. The 2023 season is likely Tyler Boyd’s last in Cincinnati, and he’ll be eager to prove he’s still playing at a high level.

Burrow possesses every tool necessary to showcase growth in 2023. He’s capable of having an MVP-type season. Burrow is a strong candidate to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns this season.

DON’T FORGET ABOUT: AARON RODGERS

It would be easy to forget about an aging Aaron Rodgers that threw for a disappointing 26 touchdowns last season. I’m not making that mistake. A four-time MVP winner that’s led the league in touchdowns twice (as recently as 2020), Rodgers has newfound motivation to reclimb the quarterbacking charts throughout 2023.

An extremely petty Rodgers is eager to enjoy the type of success with the New York Jets that would make the Green Bay Packers jealous. Rodgers also has a much better supporting cast around him than he did last season. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson is capable of exploding as a sophomore. Allen Lazard, Corey Davis, and Mecole Hardman Jr. help round out one of the league’s deepest pool of receivers.