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NFL Justin Herbert
NFL

Who’s Best Bet To Be 2022 NFL MVP?

  • Justin Melo
  • May 9, 2022
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The NFL will release its 2022 regular-season schedule this Thursday and we’re beginning to feel the excitement. This offseason qualifies as one of the wildest and most unpredictable time periods in NFL history, and it guarantees to lead to an exciting 2022 campaign. 

Despite some question marks, back-to-back reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers decided to return to the Green Bay Packers via a historic contract. Rodgers ultimately stayed put, but several other quarterbacks traded team colors, with the likes of Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, and Carson Wentz pledging their allegiances to new franchises while securing better situations for themselves. Rodgers will face stiff competition as he attempts to make it three consecutive MVP awards as a result. 

Young signal-callers such as Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are expected to take steps forward. The always elite Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen pose as an annual threat, too. Tom Brady made a triumphant return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a short-lived retirement. The league has arguably never featured more quarterback talent than it does today, and that makes predicting the 2022 MVP winner a difficult exercise.

With that said, the NFL futures prop betting landscape for the 2022 Regular-Season MVP award is officially starting to take shape. BetOnline doesn’t waste any time, and they’ve already updated the exciting odds. The top 10 shakes out as follows:

  • Justin Herbert (+700)
  • Josh Allen (+750)
  • Patrick Mahomes (+750)
  • Joe Burrow (+1000)
  • Tom Brady (+1200)
  • Aaron Rodgers (+1400)
  • Russell Wilson (+1400)
  • Deshaun Watson (+1400)
  • Matthew Stafford (+1800)
  • Jalen Hurts (+1800)

The current landscape certainly qualifies as rather intriguing. The BetOnline oddsmakers certainly expect a quarterback to capture this honor, and we’re inclined to agree with that expectation. Quarterbacks have predominantly secured this award historically, so it’s no surprise to see the top-10 hands-on favorites be made up of premier signal-callers entirely. We’ve compiled some thoughts below.
THE FAVORITE: JUSTIN HERBERT, QB, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

It qualifies as a bit of a surprise to witness Herbert as the early leader in the clubhouse, but no amount of praise qualifies as overreaching for the talented Herbert. The former Oregon signal-caller experienced an outstanding sophomore campaign in 2021 by throwing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in his first full season under center. Herbert showed marked improvement from an impressive rookie season and is largely expected to take another sizable step forward in his upcoming third campaign.

Chargers General Manager Tom Telesco has done an excellent job preparing the Chargers to compete for the division title in 2022. The Chargers managed to retain Mike Williams at wide receiver, and his presence alongside fellow high-level playmakers Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen gives Herbert three terrifying options. The Chargers also signed free-agent tight end Gerald Everett, who previously played for head coach Brandon Staley in Los Angeles with the Rams. Josh Palmer will continue growing into a WR3 role, and the selections of Zion Johnson and Isaiah Spiller in the 2022 NFL Draft should make the Chargers’ offense even scarier than it was a year ago. 

Playing in the ultra-competitive and new-look AFC West should lead to several high-scoring affairs. Herbert should top 5,000 passing yards for the second consecutive season while crossing the 40-touchdown mark for the first time. He’s not my early choice for MVP, but the logic is understandable.
MY PICK: JOSH ALLEN, QB, BUFFALO BILLS
Currently viewed as the No. 1 contender, Bills quarterback Josh Allen had a decent shot at capturing last season’s MVP honors, but didn’t do quite enough to deny Rodgers from enjoying the spoils for the second consecutive season. 

Allen’s 2021 campaign fell a bit short of reaching the same heights as his breakout 2020 season. Allen threw one less touchdown (36), 137 fewer yards (4,407), and threw five more interceptions (15) while his completion percentage plummeted to 63.3% from a previous career-high of 69.2%. Allen’s path to earning his first-ever MVP award is straightforward, and the talented signal-caller is fully capable of achieving what’s necessary.

Allen and Stefon Diggs shall continue to form one of the most feared quarterback-receiver duos across the league. Gabriel Davis is ready to step into a WR2 role. Bills General Manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have done a fantastic job adding even more weapons to what’s already an impressive supporting offensive cast. 

Jamison Crowder should help offset Cole Beasley’s absence in the slot. Rodger Saffold joins Buffalo after being released by the Tennessee Titans and is expected to upgrade the left guard position. The signing of O.J. Howard on a low-cost-one-year-prove-it deal gives Buffalo another option at tight end behind the always reliable Dawson Knox. Drafting James Cook in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft should help Buffalo add a new wrinkle to their already haunting attack. Cook features outstanding hands and can be utilized as a weapon in the passing game. 

The Bills are expected to win 11-plus games before contending for a Super Bowl in January and February. Allen has the pieces in place to win MVP in 2022.

DON’T SLEEP ON: AARON RODGERS, QB, GREEN BAY PACKERS

It’s extremely odd to witness the reigning back-to-back MVP winner rank sixth among the current favorites. Rodgers’ chances of winning a third consecutive MVP award are currently viewed as less than three quarterbacks that have never previously captured this award (Allen, Herbert, Burrow). It qualifies as borderline disrespectful, even though it’s easy to understand why the oddsmakers have soured on Rodgers’ chances. 

Green Bay’s decision to trade disgruntled superstar wide receiver Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders earlier this offseason is undoubtedly a big reason why Rodgers ranks this low. Adams is arguably the best receiver across the entire league, and everyone expects Rodgers to feel his absence.

Rodgers is the type of quarterback that’s historically thrived when the naysayers begin counting him out, and he’s undeniably paying attention to the less-than-desirable narrative currently surrounding his expectations. A shiny new contract and a disappointing, premature postseason exit in the divisional round at the hands of Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers give Rodgers a plethora of motivational-based reasons to prove his critics wrong in 2022. 

Rodgers is still an elite signal-caller, and Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur is as brilliant as any offensive-minded leader in the league. Packers General Manager Brian Gutekunst also drafted former North Dakota State wide receiver Christian Watson in the second round. Watson is expected to quickly soak up targets on the boundary. Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, and Randall Cobb remain in the fold, and the Packers recently signed Sammy Watkins. Expect Rodgers to spread the ball around more in 2022.