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NFL Mock Draft
NFL Draft

2022 NFL Mock Draft Based On Betting Odds

  • Jaime Eisner
  • April 22, 2022
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As the 2022 NFL Draft draws closer, the volume of mock draft posts increases exponentially. It’s a wonderful time of year, honestly, and we can see all sorts of creativity play out. 

There are predictive and “what I would do” mocks. There are mocks with trades, mocks without them, best player available mocks, and so much more. However, this mock will be a bit different than all of those. This mock draft is based on available betting odds for teams, players, position groups, etc.

Before we get into the picks, here are the parameters for this mock:

— Teams must choose a player at a position based on current betting odds with reasonable adjustments based on previously drafted players

— Players should be chosen around their listed over/under whenever possible

— Based on current odds, the following must happen in Round 1: QB (O2.5), RB (U0.5), WR (6-7), OL (U7.5), CBs (U4.5), SAF (O1.5)

So let’s take a look at what a first-round mock draft looks like based only on betting odds.

1. Aidan Hutchinson | Jaguars

While the confidence in Hutchinson being the first overall pick has waned in recent weeks—I’d predictively guess Travon Walker is drafted No. 1—the former Wolverine is still the odds-on favorite to be the top pick at every sportsbook.

JAX: -1000 to draft DL/EDGE
Hutchinson: O/U 1.5
Hutchinson No. 1: -200

2. Kayvon Thibodeaux | Lions

A recent surge has catapulted Thibodeaux back into the top two and he’s now the slight favorite to be the Lions’ selection here. Note, sportsbooks are more worried about Hutchinson falling to No. 2 than they are about Travon Walker or Malik Willis going over Thibodeaux.

DET: -280 to draft DL/EDGE
Thibodeaux: O/U 4.5
Thibodeaux No. 2: +150

3. Ikem Ekwonu | Texans

Ekwonu was the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick a few months ago, but it appears EDGEs will dominate the very start of the draft. Another EDGE could go here, but the odds lean toward Ekwonu over Travon Walker. Ekwonu is a -190 favorite to be the first offensive lineman off the board. Note: Don’t rule out Sauce Gardner here—his odds have been shortening recently.

HOU: +150 to draft OL
Ekwonu: O/U 4.5
Ekwonu No. 3: +200

4. Ahmad Gardner | Jets

The betting market, and Jets fans, would love a pass-rusher here, but the oddsmakers don’t see Hutchinson or Thibodeaux falling to No. 4. So the Jets make the next-best move by selecting the top corner in the class, who’s -450 to be CB1.

NYJ: +250 to draft DB
Gardner: O/U 5.5
Gardner No. 4: +350

5. Evan Neal | Giants

Neal and Ekwonu are co-favorites to be the Giants’ pick here at No. 5. Since Ekwonu is off the board, Neal is the easy pick here. Oddsmakers can’t see the Giants passing up on one of the elite OTs despite having another selection two picks from now.

NYG: -120 to draft OL
Neal: O/U 5.5
Neal No. 5: +300

6. Kenny Pickett | Panthers

The quarterback betting markets are all out of whack—for both Pickett and Malik Willis. Willis is the favorite to be the first passer drafted, but Pickett is the favorite to be Carolina’s selection at No. 6. Willis can be found as high as -250 to be a top-10 pick while also being -115 to go outside the top 10. For this spot, we’ll just rock with the specific favorite to go No. 6 overall. Note: Charles Cross could be a value bet here.

Pickett: O/U 12.5
Pickett No. 5: +175
Implied Odds To Go R1: 98%

7. Travon Walker | Giants

This is a weird one because the sportsbooks and mock drafters agree that it’s hard to find a snug landing spot for Walker if he doesn’t go to the Jaguars with the top pick. However, pass-rusher and offensive line are the two biggest needs and the two most likely selections for the Giants according to betting odds, so they take the best EDGE available and stop Walker’s slide.

Walker: O/U 3.5
Walker No. 7: +2200

8. Garrett Wilson | Falcons

The race for WR1 is far from settled, but Wilson leads the three-horse race that also includes Jameson Williams and Drake London. Wilson is +100 to be the first wide receiver drafted and the favorite at +500 to be the Falcons’ selection at No. 8 overall.

ATL: +110 to draft WR
Wilson: O/U 10.5
Wilson at No. 8: +500

9. Charles Cross | Seahawks

Keep an eye on this spot for Willis (his O/U is either 9.5 or 10.5 and quarterback is the second-most-likely pick for Seattle according to betting odds), but Cross is the player with the best odds left on the board for the Seahawks here. Offensive line is the +175 favorite for Seattle’s pick here.

SEA: +175 to draft OL
Cross: O/U 7.5
Cross at No. 9: +330

10. Jermaine Johnson  | Jets

After missing out on the top two EDGEs at pick No. 4, the Jets come back at 10 and snag one in Johnson. While wide receiver was very much in play here, Johnson’s draft position over/under and the Jets’ odds to draft an EDGE in Round 1 were the tie-breakers here.

Johnson: O/U 9.5
Johnson at No. 10: +600
Implied Odds To Go R1: 95%

11. Kyle Hamilton | Commanders

Defensive back is the co-favorite to be Washington’s first selection (along with wide receiver) and this appears to be the sweet spot for Hamilton in the betting odds.

WSH: +125 to draft DB
Hamilton: O/U 10.5

12. Derek Stingley Jr. | Vikings

Stingley Jr.’s draft stock has been all over the map over the last eight months or so. From a locked-in top-three pick to a mid-first-rounder to a potential top-10 pick again, it’s been a roller coaster. But given the Vikings’ need for CB help and Stingley’s O/U, he’s the favorite to go here.

MIN: +115 to draft DB
Stingley: O/U 11.5

13. Drake London | Texans

Houston has plenty of holes to fill and they’ve been sniffing around potential wide receivers (like Deebo Samuel). With the top four edge rushers off the board, the betting odds don’t have a clear favorite here. So let’s add to the wide receiver corps and allow London to just go past his posted draft position.

London: O/U 10.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 95%

14. Jordan Davis | Ravens

This is another pick where mock drafters and the betting odds align. From defensive line being the favorite for Baltimore’s first pick to Davis’ O/U being 14.5, this feels like a match made in heaven.

BAL: +150 to draft DL/EDGE
Davis: O/U 14.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 96%

15. Jameson Williams | Eagles

It’s a dead heat right now between wide receiver, DL/EDGE, and defensive back for this pick (all +225). Given the chance that the Saints and/or Chargers may want to add a receiver, the Eagles pounce and another member of the Crimson Tide to their offensive lineup.

PHI: +225 to draft WR
Williams: O/U 14.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 94%

16. Malik Willis | Saints

Willis’ wait is over. Quarterback is the favorite to go here and Willis is the only logical option based on the betting odds. Only the Steelers have better odds to land Willis than the Saints among teams that have not yet made a selection.

NO: +150 to draft QB
Willis: O/U 10.5

17. Trevor Penning | Chargers

There’s been a lot of buzz this draft season around Penning and the Chargers are a fairly frequent landing spot for him in mock drafts. Given the sportsbooks’ over/under and the Chargers’ odds of taking an offensive lineman, this pick makes sense.

LAC: +120 to draft OL
Penning: O/U 16.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 83%

18. Trent McDuffie | Eagles

After taking a wide receiver first, we jump right back into filling another need with a cornerback opposite Darius Slay. McDuffie is widely considered to be CB3 and his over/under is strategically placed right in front of Philadelphia’s second pick.

McDuffie: O/U 17.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 88%

19. Chris Olave | Saints

Offensive tackle and wide receiver are New Orleans’ next biggest needs outside of quarterback. With Penning off the board, the Saints turn to the best pass-catcher available in Olave. Olave is a great fit and his over/under suggests this is a real possibility.

Olave: O/U 17.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 90%

20. Desmond Ridder | Steelers

Despite signing Mitch Trubisky this offseason, drafting a quarterback is listed as the betting favorite for Round 1. If the Steelers don’t trade up for Willis, Ridder would be the consolation prize. While his over/under is currently 28.5, he’s been inching up from 32.5 and 31.5 within the last couple weeks.

PIT: +190 to draft QB
Ridder: O/U 28.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 55%

21. Devin Lloyd | Patriots

A cornerback to help replace J.C. Jackson was considered here as adding a defensive back is the slight favorite at +250, there is no corner within five spots of this pick in terms of over/under. Instead, we’ll grab the No. 2 option. Lloyd is -500 to be the first linebacker drafted and the Patriots are +300 to take one. On top of all that, this is a very good fit too.

NE: +300 to draft LB
Lloyd: O/U 18.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 91%

22. Treylon Burks | Packers

Is this finally the year the Packers draft a first-round wide receiver? Sportsbooks certainly believe so. Wide receiver is a heavy favorite to be Green Bay’s first selection. Burks has the highest over/under of any of the remaining wide receiver prospects.

GB: -165 to draft WR
Burks: O/U 23.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 87%

23. George Karlaftis | Cardinals

Wide receiver is the slight favorite in this spot for Arizona with defensive back and DL/EDGE very close behind. While Andrew Booth Jr. was considered here, the edge—no pun intended—went to Karlaftis, whose over/under is a handful of spots earlier than this selection.

ARI: +275 to draft DL/EDGE
Karlaftis: O/U 18.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 94%

24. Zion Johnson | Cowboys

The Cowboys need to bolster their offensive line and are favored to do so. If the board somehow falls this way, I can’t see Dallas passing on Johnson.

DAL: +150 to draft OL
Implied Odds To Go R1: 75%

25. Andrew Booth Jr. | Bills

The Bills are in need of a CB2 opposite Tre White and one falls into their lap here. Once viewed as a potential top-10 pick, Booth Jr.’s draft stock has fallen due to medical concerns. Even so, he’s still expected to be a first-round pick and the Bills are favored to take a cornerback in Round 1.

BUF: +175 to draft DB
Booth: O/U 26.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 64%

26. Tyler Linderbaum | Titans

If you know what the Titans are going to do with their first-round pick… that makes one of us. The betting market views offensive line as the current favorite and with the top center still available, Linderbaum is the pick.

TEN: +185 to draft OL
Linderbaum: O/U 27.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 88%

27. Kenyon Green | Buccaneers

The Buccaneers were able to bring back Ryan Jensen and trade for Shaq Mason, but Aaron Stinnie’s spot at guard could be up for grabs. Green can slot right in and be a day-one starter for Tampa Bay, who’s favorite to take an offensive lineman in the first round.

TB: +150 to draft OL
Implied Odds To Go R1: 71%

28. Devonte Wyatt | Packers

Outside of wide receiver, which was addressed at pick No. 22, the next-highest odds land on DL/EDGE, and boy would Wyatt be a fun fit alongside Kenny Clark.

Wyatt: O/U 29.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 75%

29. Jahan Dotson | Chiefs

Most analysts, and sportsbooks, expect the Chiefs to add a wide receiver with one of their two first-round picks after trading away Tyreek Hill. Dotson is a speedy option and one of only two wide receivers favored to go in the first round that remain.

KC: +120 to draft WR
Dotson: O/U 31.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 59%

30. Boye Mafe | Chiefs

After wide receiver, DL/EDGE is next up on the Chiefs’ betting odds. Mafe has the highest over/under of the options. Mafe had a strong Senior Bowl and garnered first-round buzz as a result.

Mafe: O/U 29.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 57%

31. Daxton Hill | Bengals

While offensive line is still the favorite here, given Cincinnati’s investments this offseason and the fact that seven players at the position have already come off the board, they move to their second need according to draft odds. Over 1.5 safeties going in Round 1 is a pretty heavy favorite and this is a good landing spot for Hill—the heavy favorite to be SAF2 and with an over/under just a couple spots before this selection.

CIN: +250 to draft DB
Hill: O/U 29.5
Implied Odds To Go R1: 62%

32. Christian Watson | Lions

The seventh wide receiver to come off the board (O6.5 is -110); the Lions continue to add much-needed help to their pass-catching room. Watson is -115 to be a top-32 pick, edging out George Pickens and Skyy Moore (both +150).

Implied Odds To Go R1: 53%

Written By

Jaime Eisner