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Aaron Rodgers
NFL Betting

NFL Divisional Round Betting Preview

  • The Draft Network
  • January 21, 2022
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

(Line: -3.5, O/U 47.5) Cincinnati Bengals Factoring in recent trends, the Bengals are 35-30-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2018. That's $200 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Cincinnati posted strong ATS results when playing on the road (20-12, $680), facing AFC competition (29-19-1, $810) and taking on winning teams (19-12, $580). The 2021 ATS numbers are also encouraging, at 11-7 overall ($330), 6-3 as the betting underdog ($270) and 9-4 versus AFC foes ($460). Also, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS from the last eight times their opponent scored 18-plus points the previous week ($590). This year’s Bengals had a No. 7 ranking for both passing offense (averaging 259.0 yards per game) and scoring offense (27.1 ppg). Cincinnati also had the league's fifth-best rush defense, allowing 102.5 ground yards per game. Tennessee Titans Among the relevant trends, the Titans are 35-33-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That's minus-$130 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Tennessee posted underwhelming ATS marks when playing at home (17-16-1, minus-$60), facing AFC competition (25-26-1, minus-$360) and serving as the betting favorite (15-19-1, minus-$590). The ATS numbers for 2021 are somewhat better, with the Titans going 10-7 overall ($230), 6-3 at home ($270) and 5-2 versus teams with winning records ($280). The Titans are 8-1 ATS ($690) the last nine times their pregame total exceeded 45 points. (It's 47.5 for Saturday.) Tennessee owned the NFL's second-best rush defense this season, allowing only 84.6 yards per game. The Titans offense ranked fifth in rushing offense (141.4 ypg), spurred on by pre-injury Derrick Henry rushing for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns in the season’s first half. Henry's slated to return to the lineup Saturday. Total Trends For the season, Cincinnati and Tennessee are 8-10 and 8-9 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 16-19 (minus-$490). Charting their last six head-to-head meetings, the Bengals and Titans tallied combined averages of 43.0 points per game — a tick below Saturday's total. Citing other trends, the Bengals have hit the Over just once in their last 10 January games (minus-$890). Also, chronicling the last five Cincinnati-Tennessee matchups, the Over is merely 1-3-1 ... when the Titans' implied odds for victory are less than 70 percent (minus-$230).

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

(Line: -5.5, O/U 47) San Francisco 49ers The 49ers are 34-34-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2018. That's minus-$340 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, San Francisco posted subpar ATS marks when encountering teams with winning records (15-18-1, minus-$480), serving as the betting underdog (12-18, minus-$780) and playing on the road (16-18-1, minus-$380). The ATS numbers for 2021 are more encouraging, with the Niners going 10-8 overall ($120), 6-4 on the road ($160) and 3-1 as the betting underdog ($190). Citing other trends, the 49ers are 9-1 ATS from the last 10 times they scored 30 or fewer points the previous week ($790). Also, San Francisco has a 2-7-1 ATS when charting the last 10 times an NFC North opponent passed for more than 250 yards the previous game (minus-$570). San Francisco ranked fifth in defensive sacks this season (48). The Niners offense ranked seventh in total offense (375.7 yards per game) and 13th in scoring offense (25.1 ppg). Green Bay Packers Among the relevant trends, the Packers are 40-28-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That's $920 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Green Bay enjoyed superb ATS marks when playing at home (23-12, $980), facing NFC competition (29-22-1, $480), representing the betting favorite (29-21, $590) and kicking off in the Central Time Zone (30-14, $1460). The 2021 ATS numbers are similarly stellar, with the Packers going 12-5 overall ($650), 7-1 at home ($590) and 9-3 against NFC foes ($570). In another trend, the Packers have a 13-1 ATS when immediately following a straight-up loss ($1190). Green Bay's defense racked up the sixth-most interceptions this season (18). The Packers offense, despite the sluggish start, finished 10th overall in both total offense (365.6 yards per game) and scoring offense (26.5 ppg). Total Trends This season, San Francisco and Green Bay are 8-10 and 8-9 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 16-19 (minus-$490). Citing other trends, the Packers have surpassed the Over in each of their last 11 January games ($1100). Also, chronicling their last six head-to-head meetings, the Niners and Packers boast combined averages of 49.0 points per game — slightly above Saturday's total.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(Line: -2.5, O/U 48) Los Angeles Rams Among the relevant trends here, the Rams are 36-33-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That's minus-$30 from a straight $110 bet. For this period, Los Angeles posted encouraging ATS marks when playing on the road (19-17, $30), representing the betting underdog (7-5, $150) and facing NFC competition (30-22-1, $580). The 2021 ATS numbers are subpar, with the Rams going 9-9 overall (minus-$90), 4-5 on the road (minus-$150) and 1-2 when kicking off in the Eastern Time Zone (minus-$120). Los Angeles owned top-10 rankings in three major offensive categories this season – fifth in passing offense (273.1 yards per game), seventh in scoring offense (27.1 ppg) and ninth in total offense (372.1 yards). The Rams defense also had top-three rankings with sacks (50) and interceptions (19). Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Bucs are 35-32-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That's minus-$20 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Tampa Bay endured mixed ATS results when playing at home (17-15-2, $50), facing winning clubs (16-14-1, $60) ... but also taking on NFC competition (25-26-1, minus-$360). The ATS numbers for 2021 are markedly better, at 10-8 overall ($120), 10-8 as the betting favorite ($120) and 7-2 playing at home ($480). For the 2021-22 campaign, Tampa Bay ranked either first or second in passing offense (307.6 yards per game), scoring offense (30.1 ppg) and total offense (405.9 yards). Total Trends For the season, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay are 9-8-1 and 9-9 with the Over, respectively, for a combined 18-17-1 track record (minus-$70). In other trends, the Over is 14-1 from the last 15 times the Rams were underdogs ($1290). The Over has a 2-8-1 record when chronicling the previous 11 times in which Los Angeles carried a road winning streak of two or more games (minus-$680). On the flip side, Tampa Bay has eclipsed the Over in 14 of its last 16 games ($1180), when serving as moneyline favorites of less than -300. (Sunday's line is currently -150.) Also, the Under is 0-5 in the last five Rams-Bucs battles (minus-$550).

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

(Line: -2, O/U 54) Buffalo Bills Among the relevant trends here, the Bills are 39-28-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That's $820 from a straight $110 bet. For this period, Buffalo posted solid ATS marks when playing on the road (20-12-2, $680), facing AFC competition (28-23-2, $270) and encountering top-five offenses (10-5, $450). The 2021 ATS numbers are also productive, with the Bills going 11-6-1 overall ($440), 5-3 on the road ($170) and 8-5 versus AFC foes ($250). Citing another trend, Buffalo is 8-2 ATS from the last 10 times its implied odds for victory were less than 60 percent ($580). For the 2021-22 campaign, the Bills ranked fourth overall in takeaways (11 fumble recoveries, 19 INTs). The Bills offense also ranked third in scoring offense (28.4 ppg) and fifth in total offense (381.9 yards per game). Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs are 41-32-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That's $580 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Kansas City enjoyed robust ATS results when facing teams with winning records (26-18-1, $620) and taking on AFC competition (33-22, $880). The ATS numbers for 2021 are pedestrian, though, at 9-9 overall (minus-$90), 5-5 at home (minus-$50) and 9-9 as the betting favorite (minus-$90). Citing other trends, Kansas City has a 7-1 ATS when immediately following up its last eight straight-up victories ($590). Conversely, the Chiefs have failed to cover their last six encounters with the Bills ... when Buffalo rushed for 100-plus yards the previous week (minus-$660). Kansas City notched the fourth-most defensive touchdowns this season (4). The Chiefs offense ranked third in total offense (396.8 yards per game), fourth in passing offense (281.8 yards) and fourth in scoring offense (28.2 ppg). Total Trends For the season, Buffalo and Kansas City 9-9 and 11-6-1 to the Over, respectively, for a combined 20-15-1 ($350). Chronicling their last five head-to-head meetings, including Buffalo's 38-20 road rout in Week 5, the Bills and Chiefs own combined averages of 48.2 points per game — well below Sunday's total. Also, the Bills have failed to hit the Under in their last eight games as underdogs (minus-$880).

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