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NFL Draft

Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Fournette Free Fallin’

  • The Draft Network
  • September 2, 2020
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The 2020 NFL season is almost here, and as players continue to workout during this abridged preseason, information is changing rapidly. Each week leading up to the start of the season The Draft Network will take a look at the landscape around the NFL and determine whose fantasy football stock is rising and falling based on the previous week’s happenings. This will be a valuable resource leading up to your fantasy drafts, as it’ll not only update you on what’s going on, but why it matters for fantasy purposes. 

STOCK UP

Boston Scott (RB - PHI)

Despite being a damn good team, the Philadelphia Eagles have a lot of issues as the calendar flips to September. Injuries along the offensive line and the receiving corps are major areas of concern, as is starting running back Miles Sanders’ hamstring injury. While it’s too soon to tell if Sanders is in danger of missing Week 1, his workload could be limited slightly. Plus, given Philadelphia long-term cap issues, they’ve held themselves out of the running back market thus far. Scott is one of the biggest beneficiaries of that and enters 2020 as the primary backup. He had plenty of fantasy success late last season (with Sanders) and might have similar success early on if Sanders is limited. From Weeks 14-17 last year, Scott averaged 15.25 touches and 20.5 PPR fantasy points per game.

Blake Jarwin (TE - DAL)

I take all the coachspeak this time of year with the world’s largest grain of salt, but because Jarwin has been a tight end sleeper of mine for months, I wanted to highlight this quote from Stephen Jones:

“I think Blake Jarwin has had an amazing camp … it was hard to be a tight end in this organization when 82 was around. Certainly, he’s getting to spread his wings now, whether it’s Coach McCarthy, the offensive staff, his teammates, he keeps showing up out there. 
“… he’s really coming in to his own, and nothing would surprise me with him in terms of what his production could be this year. He just keeps getting better. His rapport with Dak is outstanding, and I really think he’s got a chance to step right in there and be a really good, if not great, tight end for us.”

That chemistry, if true, is the key factor here. Jarwin was always walking into a good situation, he just needs to seize the opportunity. In Jason Witten’s three years with Dak Prescott, he averaged 88.3 targets per season. Even in 2018 when Witten was in the broadcast booth, Jarwin (four starts) and Geoff Swaim (nine starts) combined for nearly 70 targets. If Jarwin gets about 80 targets, a 60/600/4 season is well within reach, as is the bottom of TE1 territory.

Deebo Samuel (WR - SF)

I’ve operated under the assumption that Samuel will miss the first three games of the season recovering from his broken foot. I dropped him to around WR40 with a 13-game projection. However, there were multiple positive reports about Samuel’s recovery over the last week and it appears he has a shot to not miss any regular season action at all. 

https://twitter.com/ChrisBiderman/status/1298702125120200705

Even with the litany of injury issues the San Francisco 49ers have at wide receiver, it still feels like Week 1 is a longshot. But even if he’s back on the field by Week 2, that’s tremendous progress. Considering he’s going in the eighth round right now with an ADP of WR37, there’s plenty of value to be had if he can take the field in New York on September 20 vs. the New York Jets. 

STOCK DOWN

Leonard Fournette (RB - FA)

Getting cut two weeks prior to the start of the season isn’t exactly what you want for your RB2 now is it? The surprising move on Monday morning left many fantasy managers who already drafted quite angry and at the time of writing, we don’t know where Fournette may land. But, all hope is not lost. It’s possible, depending on his landing spot, he could still return low-end RB2 value. However, it’s very unlikely he’ll get the same volume of workload anywhere else that he was set to receive in Jacksonville. He should be valued as a flex play until further notice. 

Jalen Reagor (WR - PHI)

After being hyped up throughout training camp, Reagor, unfortunately, suffered an injury and will miss 3-4 weeks with a shoulder tear. Given Alshon Jeffery’s iffiness to be active Week 1, Philadelphia Eagles fans were excited for what Regor could bring to the team right out of the gate. Alas, we’re probably not seeing him on the field until October. In most leagues, that means he should go undrafted. 

David Montgomery (RB - CHI)

Speaking of multi-week timetables, Montgomery suffered a groin injury in practice that will keep him out 2-4 weeks. While he could be on the field for Week 1, I’m not counting on it. Let’s hope for a Week 3 return and roll from there. Montgomery dropped from my RB27 to my RB36 in my rankings with an updated 13-game projection of 167 rushing attempts; 660 rushing yards, 21 receptions,154 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns. I had some concerns about those who were super optimistic on a big season for Montgomery beforehand, now, I’m out on him in PPR formats unless he really falls in drafts.

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