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NFL Draft

Fantasy Football RBs: 3 Biggest ADP Values

  • The Draft Network
  • July 15, 2020
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If you listen to the TDN Fantasy Podcast, you know how much we talk about value. While value is hard to find in the first couple rounds of fantasy football drafts, it can make or break your season in the middle rounds. 

Positional value also affects draft strategy, which is why articles like this one can be very helpful. Having a few players in your back pocket as safety options, even if they’re not your primary target heading into your draft, allows you to have way more flexibility on draft day. You can take a chance on a high-risk, high-reward player or snag a player who’s falling at a position you’re already pretty strong in because you know there’s value to be had later on. 

Let’s focus specifically on running backs. Here are three of the biggest ADP values at the position right now. TDN Premium members can check out more values by position, as well as deeper rankings and player stat projections by clicking here.

Other Positions: QB

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

ADP: RB10, No. 15 overall

TDN Rank: RB5, No. 6 overall

Although there are only nine spots between his TDN ranking and overall ADP, when it’s that early in the draft it’s something to take note of. Jones had a phenomenal breakout season in 2019, finishing as the No. 2 overall fantasy running back in total points and the RB3 on a points-per-game basis. There’s no reason to expect a significant downgrade in production this season.

Jones is arguably the biggest beneficiary of the Packers blatantly ignoring their biggest holes this offseason. He’ll waltz into the 2020 season as Aaron Rodgers’ No. 2 pass-catching option behind Davante Adams, which should allow him to replicate or slightly exceed his 2019 output in that area. Combine that with more than 200 rushing attempts out of the backfield and you’ve got a mid-level RB1. He won’t score 19 total touchdowns again, but 15 is very doable. Don’t let him fall into the second round of fantasy drafts. 

Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins

ADP: RB42, No. 106.8 overall

TDN Rank: RB30, No. 71 overall

Breida is one of the fastest players in the NFL and is now in a very advantageous situation in Miami. Jordan Howard will serve as the early-down and goalline back, while Brieda can be on the field for passing downs and fourth-quarter drives when the Dolphins are down. Breida will get his fair share of carries as well—I project somewhere around 125—but his biggest value will be in the passing game. 

Fifty-plus catches are well within reach, and if anything happens to Howard, Breida is instantly a weekly RB2. That’s a lot of upside for a player going outside the top 100 right now. Remember, some fantasy managers were playing Patrick Laird last season in DFS or in flex spots late last season. Breida is four times the talent and will have the production to back it up when given the opportunity. 

Duke Johnson, Houston Texans

ADP: RB50, No. 144.5 overall

TDN Rank: RB40, No. 109 overall

While there’s another D. Johnson running back in Houston going nearly 30 RBs higher in ADP, don’t forget about Duke Johnson. He’ll still have a significant role in Houston’s offense as a true pass-catching back. Given a lack of a proven tight end and the extensive injury histories of Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, and David Johnson, Deshaun Watson has to go somewhere with the ball and Duke Johnson might be that safe check-down option. 

I expect Duke Johnson to get a boost in touches this season, elevating him beyond the 127 he got in his first season with the Texans. The loss of DeAndre Hopkins and potential games missed by David Johnson should counteract the targets he’d lose by David’s presence in the first place. Duke was the RB37 overall and RB42 on a per-game basis in PPR formats last season (minimum seven games played)—those numbers were comparable to Adrian Peterson and Sony Michel. It’s hard to imagine him having a lesser role this season, but he’s currently the forgotten man in the Houston backfield in fantasy drafts.

TDN Premium members can check out more values by position, as well as deeper rankings and player stat projections by clicking here.

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