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College Football Week 11: Marquee Matchups Trends Report

  • The Draft Network
  • November 10, 2021
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A pair of unbeatens were knocked off in Week 10, as Wake Forest blew a late lead against North Carolina and Michigan State was upset by Purdue in West Lafayette. Now only four teams remain undefeated in college football this season, including No. 1 Georgia, which is in Knoxville on Saturday to take on the Vols. Here are BetPrep’s key trends for the biggest matchups in Week 11.

No. 6 Michigan (-1) at Penn State

12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 48.5)

Jim Harbaugh is 2-9 in his Michigan career in road games between AP-ranked teams. According to ESPN Stats & Informational Group, that’s the worst winning percentage by any coach in road games between AP-ranked teams at a single school with a minimum of 10 games coached. For comparison, 60 coaches have coached 10 such games at one school and don’t have a winning percentage that low.

The Wolverines also haven’t won a road game against an AP-ranked Penn State team since 1999, having lost three such trips to Happy Valley since that season.

Michigan Key Trends

  • The Wolverines are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against the Nittany Lions.
  • The Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
  • The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.

Penn State Key Trends

  • The Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams in Happy Valley.
  • The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • Penn State is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall.

No. 8 Oklahoma (-5.5) at Baylor

12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 62.5)

The Sooners have won eight straight road games against AP-ranked conference opponents, which is just one shy of matching the longest such streak in the AP Poll Era (since 1936). Only Alabama (2014-17) and Ohio State (2012-20) have more consecutive road wins over AP-ranked conference opponents in the AP Poll Era.

Oklahoma Key Trends

  • The Sooners are just 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Waco.
  • Oklahoma is also 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus Baylor overall.
  • The road team, however, is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings between these two teams.

Baylor Key Trends

  • The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Baylor.
  • The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
  • Baylor is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when facing a team with a winning record.

No. 1 Georgia (-20.5) at Tennessee

3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 56)

The Bulldogs are the first team to allow 13 or fewer points in each of their first nine games of a season since the 1992 Alabama squad, which ran the table and won the national championship.

Georgia has defeated Tennessee by 20 or more points in each of the last four times these two teams have met. That said, the Vols have played well with Hendon Hooker under center. Tennessee is averaging 38.9 points per game in the seven games that Hooker has started and he has been responsible for multiple touchdowns in eight straight games.

Georgia Key Trends

  • The Dawgs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Vols.
  • Georgia has covered in 23 of its last 31 road games.
  • The Bulldogs are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road favorite.

Tennessee Key Trends

  • The Vols are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • Tennessee has failed to cover in four of its last five games as a home dog.
  • The Vols are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when facing an opponent with a winning record.

No. 19 Purdue (+20) at No. 4 Ohio State

3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 62)

Following their upset victory over Michigan State last Saturday, the Boilermakers made the biggest jump in the AP Top-25 this week. Jeff Brohm’s squad went from being unranked a week ago, to No. 19 in the polls. According to ESPN Stats & Informational Group, that’s tied for the second-largest jump by a previously unranked team, trailing only - ironically - Michigan State’s move from unranked to No. 18 in 2018.

For the third time this season, Purdue will attempt to knock off a ranked team from the AP. The Boilermakers took down then-No. 2 Iowa earlier this season before beating No. 5 Michigan State last week. Only the 1959 Illinois Fighting Illini team ever defeated three AP Top-10 teams in a single season.

Purdue Trends

  • The Boilermakers are 8-3 at the betting window in their last 11 games versus the Buckeyes.
  • Purdue is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games as an underdog and is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 games as a road pup.
  • The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams.

Ohio State Key Trends

  • The Buckeyes are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when facing an opponent with a winning record.
  • Ohio State has failed to cover in six of its last eight games as a home favorite.
  • The Buckeyes are also just 1-5 against the number in their last six games played in the month of November, which includes their failed cover as a 14-point road favorite last week in a 26-17 victory over Nebraska.

No. 11 Texas A&M (-2.5) at No. 15 Ole Miss

3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 55.5)

The Aggies clearly figured something out against Alabama because they’ve been able to sustain that momentum since knocking off the Crimson Tide back in October. A&M hasn’t trailed since the fourth quarter of its upset win over ‘Bama and is currently on a four-game win streak.

Texas A&M has also covered four straight spreads since knocking off Alabama as an 18.5-point home dog. Following their thrilling 41-38 upset over the Tide, the Aggies beat Missouri 35-14 as an 11.5-point road favorite, routed South Carolina 44-14 as 19.5-point home chalk, and soundly defeated Auburn 20-3 as a 4.5-point home favorite last Saturday in College Station (which is noteworthy considering the road team had dominated that series before last week).

Texas A&M Trends

  • The Favorite has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
  • A&M is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games and has covered in seven of the last nine games that it has been a road favorite.
  • The Aggies are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous contest.

Ole Miss Key Trends

  • The Rebels are just 2-9 at the betting window in their last 11 games as a home dog.
  • Ole Miss is 2-5 ATS in its last seven conference games.
  • The Under is a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams and has cashed in four of the last five meetings in Oxford.

No. 16 N.C. State (+2) at No. 12 Wake Forest

7:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 66.5)

According to ESPN’s FPI, the winner of Saturday night’s clash in Winston-Salem will have a leg up on playing in this year’s ACC Championship Game. FPI gives the Wolfpack an 89% chance to win the Atlantic Division if they beat the Demon Deacons, while Wake has a 74% chance to reach the ACC title game if it can knock off N.C. State.

The Wolfpack’s defense will have its work cut out for it against Wake’s offense. Over their last three games, the Demon Deacons have scored 170 points - 56.7 per game - which is the most points in any three-game span in school history. They’ve also produced 600 yards of offense in all three of their games, making the Demon Deacons the only ACC team over the last 25 seasons with 600 yards of offense in three straight games. That’s incredible when you consider what Clemson has accomplished under Dabo Swinney over the past 10 seasons.

That said, Wake Forest has also allowed 121 points over its last three games, surrendering 40.3 PPG over that span. They’re the only team in ACC history to score 55 points per game and also allow 40 points per contest over any three-game span.

N.C. State Trends

  • The Wolfpack have failed to cover in nine of their last 10 trips to Winston-Salem.
  • N.C. State is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 road games and is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog.
  • The Over is 7-1 in the Wolfpack’s last eight games as an underdog.

Wake Forest Key Trends

  • The Favorite has covered in five of the last seven meetings between these two teams.
  • The Home Team has cashed in 17 of the last 21 meetings.
  • Wake Forest is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.

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