Week 3 ended with a marquee matchup of two of the best teams in the NFL, with the headliners being 2019 regular season MVP Lamar Jackson and Super Bowl 54 MVP Patrick Mahomes. Week 4 starts with… Brett Rypien, Sam Darnold, and the combined 0-6 Denver Broncos and New York Jets. Boy, that’s a drop-off.
But football is football, and as my co-host on the TDN Fantasy Podcast Page Dimakos reminded me, we should be thankful for what we have.
Rypien will make his first career NFL start, while Darnold hopes to stave off the Trevor Lawrence conversations for another week—same goes for head coach Adam Gase and the unemployment line. Let’s get into the game. All odds are courtesy of our friends over at BetOnline.
Spread: DEN: +1 (-105) | NYJ: -1 (-115)
Moneyline: DEN: (+105) | NYJ: (-125)
Total: 40 – Over: (-114) | Under: (-106)
This line opened with the Jets (+2.5) as home ‘dogs but is trending heavily in New York's direction, especially after the news that Rypien was named the Broncos’ starter. This is a difficult game to handicap because two terrible, desperate teams facing off against each other can lead to a myriad of results. However, I’m going to go with what my gut tells me, and that’s taking the home team with a healthy starting quarterback on a short week.
Of note, the Broncos are allowing the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL this season. While the Jets are *scrolls to the bottom* the second-worst passing offense in the NFL, they could get a nice boost if Jamison Crowder returns—reports are optimistic as of this writing for Crowder and starting offensive tackle Mekhi Becton. Another positive? Darnold has notable home-road splits in favor of playing in New York.
Darnold has played 29 games in his NFL career, 14 at home and 15 on the road. While the total passing attempts are close (466 at home vs. 485 on the road), Darnold has a 22:13 TD-to-INT ratio at home compared to a 17:19 ratio on the road. Darnold throws for more yards per attempt, has a higher quarterback rating, and takes fewer sacks at home compared to on the road. All of that is to say, if Darnold is going to have a big game and come away with a victory, it’s going to be at home, with his top wide receiver on the field, and against an underperforming defense.
When you combine all of that with a second-year undrafted rookie quarterback going against an above-average blitz rate defense on the other side, I’ll go with New York to come away with a victory on national T.V. The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog at home.
Pick ATS: Jets -1
NFL picks ATS 2020: 33-14-1 (70%)
NFL picks ATS 2019: 145-119-3 (55%)
NFL picks ATS 2018: 140-115-12 (55%)
To bet on these games and more, head over to BetOnline.
- Dec 08, 2022
- Dec 08, 2022