Welcome to this new feature here at The Draft Network. Those who have followed along with TDN Fantasy's podcasts and video shows are very familiar with our "Locks of the Week," picks against the spread, and the occasional player prop. You've been able to find info on the first two here on the website, but we haven't been posting the latter, leaving those for social media and video shows. That changes now.
Each week, I will post my favorite NFL player props for the Sunday ahead but with a slight twist: all plays will return plus-odds. For those unfamiliar with that term, that means your potential winnings will exceed the amount you're betting. The player prop market is exhilarating, but you can also find your bankroll juiced to death if you never deviate from the standard over/under plays. Customizing your well-researched plays is the best bet.
Without further ado, here are my favorite plus-odds NFL player props for Week 7 in no particular order. All are one-unit bets unless otherwise noted. If you'd like to wager on these along with me, head on over to BetOnline's Player Props Builder.
Latavius Murray at least 12 carries (+106)
Murray has received at least a dozen carries in three of his five games this season, and I'm willing to bet he reaches that number again against a mediocre Panthers rush defense—although not as bad as the Lions' rushing defense, New Orleans might implement a similar game plan as their Week 4 contest. Also, given the absences of wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans might simply choose to go more run-heavy in general and lean on Murray on the ground and Alvin Kamara through the air to move the ball.
Matthew Stafford at least 3 passing TDs (+150)
I'm simply betting against the Falcons defense here. Atlanta is the only team in the NFL to allow an average of three passing touchdowns per game this season, and have let Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins all accomplish that feat. With a healthy Kenny Golladay giving a major boost to this Lions offense, I believe we'll add Matthew Stafford's name to that list on Sunday.
D'Andre Swift at least 4 receptions (+129)
The Falcons are allowing an average of 7.5 receptions per game this season to running backs. D'Andre Swift, who's had a significant pass-catching role in all but one game this season, accounts for two-thirds of Detroit's running back receptions in 2020. That math works out in our favor here, especially since Swift should see an increased role after his breakout performance last week.
J.D. McKissic at least 38 receiving yards (+127)
McKissic has reached this receiving total in each of his last three games and fell one yard short of this mark four weeks ago. His role in Washington's offense is secure and he's a safe bet for 6-8 targets per week. Dallas' defense is horrid, so I see no reason why McKissic can't continue to get into the 40s in terms of receiving yards yet again.
Giovani Bernard at least 5 receptions (+120)
Joe Mixon is out for Week 7 and Bernard will immediately assume the starter's role. As a backup, Bernard was averaging 3.3 targets and 2.7 catches per game while playing less than one-third of Cincinnati's offensive snaps. Now he's the guy in a potential shootout with the Browns. Bengals running backs are averaging 7.7 targets and 6.2 receptions per game this season. The Browns are allowing 6.5 targets and 5.3 receptions per game to the position as well. So, who's going to take that work away from Bernard on Sunday?
Late Sunday morning add(s):
Jamaal Williams at least 33 receiving yards (+122)
Chris Godwin at least 6 receptions (+110)
Josh Jacobs at least 4 receptions (+198)
HALF-UNIT LONGSHOT PROPS
J.D. McKissic at least 6 receptions (+334)
I cashed on this bet last week and want to do it again. McKissic is averaging 7.3 targets and 6.3 catches per week over the last three weeks—never finishing with fewer than six receptions. As mentioned above, he's a key piece of the Washington offense going against an abysmal defense. Plus, no full-time starting quarterback in the NFL has targeted running backs on a higher percentage of throws than Kyle Allen at 32.7%.
Noah Fant at least 5 receptions (+268)
Fant has at least five catches in three of his four games played this season, so I just couldn't pass up on this play at nearly 3/1 odds. Drew Lock loves throwing to tight ends, and Fant had six targets and five grabs when these two were both on the field for a full game in Week 1. I expect the Broncos to be playing catch-up against the Chiefs, so more overall passing attempts than average only helps this bet.
Antonio Gibson at least 5 receptions (+372)
So, as you may remember, no full-time starting quarterback in the NFL has targeted running backs on a higher percentage of throws than Kyle Allen. That plays into this bet as well. Gibson has exactly five targets in each of the last three weeks, catching 13 of them. While he has four, five, and four catches respectively in recent weeks, the nearly 4/1 odds make this bet worth a shot. It feels likely you'll either hit this prop or the McKissic one—possibly both. I expect plenty of passing attempts from both sides of this Dallas-Washington game.
2020 Props Tracker: +4.39 units (6-6)