Welcome to this new feature here at The Draft Network. Those who have followed along with TDN Fantasy's podcasts and video shows are very familiar with our "Locks of the Week," picks against the spread, and the occasional player prop. You've been able to find info on the first two here on the website, but we haven't been posting the latter (before Week 7), leaving those for social media and video shows. That changes now.
Each week, I will post my favorite NFL player props for the Sunday ahead but with a slight twist: all plays will return plus-odds. For those unfamiliar with that term, that means your potential winnings will exceed the amount you're betting. The player prop market is exhilarating, but you can also find your bankroll juiced to death if you never deviate from the standard over/under plays. Customizing your well-researched plays is the best bet.
Without further ado, here are my favorite plus-odds NFL player props for Week 11 in no particular order. All are one-unit bets unless otherwise noted. If you'd like to wager on these along with me, head on over to BetOnline's Player Props Builder.
Note: More bets are likely to be added on Sunday morning when they become available, so please check back.
J.D. McKissic at least 6 receptions (+123) + 7 receptions (+234)
It wouldn't truly be one of my player prop columns without McKissic. We've made so much money on him so far this year, that he has an open invitation to join me for Thanksgiving. Anyway, the books are starting to adjust a bit, but still not enough to not bet on the Washington running back. McKissic is averaging 6.2 catches and 8.8 targets per game in his last six games and has only one game with fewer than six receptions in that span. He has 29 (!!!) targets over the last two weeks, catching 16 of them. I'm going to keep rolling out these bets until they lose for a couple weeks in a row.
Terry McLaurin at least 7 receptions (+123)
Alex Smith is spreading the ball around a bit, but there's no doubt who his No. 1 wide receiver target is. McLaurin has exactly seven catches in four straight games and is averaging 10 targets per game. At plus-odds, I'll take a chance he meets or exceeds that total yet again against a porous Bengals secondary.
Travis Fulgham at least 5 receptions (+127)
This one feels like an overreaction to one bad game. After bursting onto the scene earlier this season, Fulgham was limited to just one catch for eight yards against the Giants last week. However, he was still tied for the team lead in snaps played (88%) and got five targets. In the four games prior, Fulgham was averaging 6.8 receptions and 10.3 targets per game. Even with Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery back, I don't think Fulgham is suddenly not a big part of Philadelphia's offense. I expect a bounce-back game, especially with Myles Garrett's absence giving Carson Wentz more time to throw.
Nick Chubb at least 18 carries (+102)
Kevin Stefanski wants to run the ball... a lot. Now that Chubb is healthy—as evidenced by his big game against the Texans last week—he'll resume his bell-cow role. In the four games Chubb started and finished this season, he's averaging 17.5 carries per game, but only has one game with fewer than 19 carries (Week 1, 10). In that game, the Browns got their doors blown off by the Ravens, so running the ball just wasn't in the cards. Kareem Hunt will still get plenty of work, but Chubb should be around 20 carries again this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster at least 7 receptions (+154)
Smith-Schuster's target share has received a massive spike in recent weeks. He's averaging 10.5 per game over the last four weeks and gets to face a bad Jacksonville secondary that will be without its best corner, C.J. Henderson. While a Henderson-JuJu matchup wasn't anticipated, it just means that the Jaguars will have issues covering everybody on Sunday. Smith-Schuster is averaging 7.8 receptions per game in his last four and should be around that total yet again this week.
Diontae Johnson at least 73 receiving yards (+110)
See above. In Johnson's last five healthy games, he's averaging 74.2 receiving yards—and that includes one dud performance where he had only three receiving yards against Baltimore. In all other games in that stretch, he's averaging 91.3 yards per game. He's a near lock for double-digit targets against a defense allowing the third-most receiving yards per game that is, again, without their top corner.
Keenan Allen at least 87 receiving yards (+121)
This one is less stats based and more of a feeling. Allen is an elite talent, at home, against a bad defense. The Jets have no idea who they'll even be dressing in the secondary this week. Allen feasts on poor defenses and should have double-digit targets in this matchup.
Aaron Jones at least 5 receptions (+152)
If Davante Adams misses this game or is limited, especially against a stout Colts defense, I expect Aaron Rodgers to check it down and get Jones heavily involved in the receiving game. Jones has at least five catches in three of his last four games.
Justin Jefferson at least 71 receiving yards (+108)
Jefferson is averaging 14.1 yards per target this season, which means he needs about five targets to reach this threshold if those averages hold. Jefferson is averaging 6.9 targets per game over his last seven outings and faces a nothing special Cowboys secondary that will be without one of its top corners (Trevon Diggs). I smell another big game for the rookie.
Sunday Morning Additions:
-- Jamison Crowder at least 7 receptions (+202)
-- Parlay: Ryan Tannehill & Carson Wentz at least 2 passing TDs (+314)
-- Ezekiel Elliott at least 71 rushing yards (+102)
2020 Props Tracker: +9.58 units
Last Week: +6.76 units