Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest, most dynamic players in the NFL. That’s certainly not breaking news. When the ball’s in his hands, every play is a potential scoring play. He’s not a true WR1 in the traditional sense, but he’s as productive as any of the top pass-catchers in the league.
Hill missed four games last season due to injury, but has only missed five games in total in his four-year career. Coming off a Super Bowl victory, what does Hill have in store for this season?
Bovada has the following prop bets on Hill for his 2020 statistical output:
Receptions: 76.5 (over -115; under -115)
Receiving Yards: 1,170.5 (over -115; under -115)
Receiving TDs: 9.5 (over -115; under -115)
Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill have been on the field together for 26 games over the past two seasons. In those games, Hill has been targeted 208 times and has 133 catches for 2,123 yards and 18 touchdowns. Hill’s target share with Mahomes is around 23.1% and that’s what we should note in particular when it comes to his receptions prop bet.
Based on Mahomes’ average pass attempts per game over the last two seasons, it’s safe to assume he’ll throw the ball about 567 times in 2020. A 23.1% target share is worth about 131 targets over 16 games. Factoring in a potential missed game for Hill, let’s use 123 targets as our constant.
Hill’s catch rate with Mahomes over the last two seasons is 63.9%. That rate over 123 targets works out to 78.6 receptions, which is over Bovada’s posted total. Unless you believe Hill will miss two or more games in 2020, the best bet is over 76.5 receptions (-115).
When it comes to receiving yards, Hill is averaging about 10.2 yards per target from Mahomes in the last two seasons. He averaged 10.8 yards per target with Mahomes back in 2018—and actually had an even higher mark with Alex Smith in 2017—but let’s continue to use his two-year average as a baseline. In that case, over 123 targets, he’d project to have 1,254.8 receiving yards. Once again, this is higher than the posted total and once again, the best wager is over 1,170.5 receiving yards (-115).
The ever-volatile touchdown prop bet is up next. Hill had a dozen in 2018 and seven in 12 games last season. Can he get to double-digits in 2020? After averaging a score every 11.6 targets since 2018, he certainly should. That works out to about 10.6 touchdowns over 123 targets. However, I tend to want to project at least 1.5 touchdowns above or below the posted total to wager on a touchdown prop. While this one is close to that threshold, this is a stay away for me.
Hill is poised to have yet another big season for arguably the best team in football. Assuming he doesn’t miss more than a game, he should be back over the 1,000-yard threshold for the third time in four seasons as the Chiefs’ top game-breaker.