We’re back for the 11th week of NFL betting action. Hopefully, you joined us on our video show breaking down Week 11’s slate of games as well as our locks of the week. If you didn’t, check out the video below:
If you’ve followed along over the last two seasons of the TDN Fantasy Podcast, you know my and Jake Arians’ “Locks of the Week” have paid out—although, you may be better off fading my locks and betting on all my other plays this season. We’re doing them again this season and adding this written component. Let’s dive in, with all odds being supplied by our friends over at BetOnline.
Jaime’s Lock No. 1: Steelers -10 (-115)
Betting the biggest spread of the weekend can be a bit worrisome, but I have a hard time believing the Jaguars can keep pace in the matchup. Rookie quarterback Jake Luton has never played a defense like this before in his life, and if James Robinson struggles at all against the ninth-best rushing defense in the NFL, this’ll quickly become a blowout. Plus, Ben Roethlisberger is on fire, coming off his two best games of the season. All of his top weapons are healthy and Jacksonville is allowing the third-most passing yards per game this season—the Jaguars are also allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game, so there’s no reprieve there. This game is a mismatch across the board and the only reason why this spread is reasonable is because Pittsburgh is on the road.
Jaime’s Lock No. 2: Patriots -1 (-125)
It’s been a very weird year for New England, but like I’ve said all season, if you treat them like an eight-win team things make more sense. They’re nowhere near the Patriots of old but they aren’t and weren’t tanking for Trevor Lawrence, either. New England is just an average team. But average teams should bead bad ones and that’s exactly what the Texans are right now. Houston is 2-7 with both wins coming against the hapless Jaguars.
The key to this game for me is New England’s recently potent rushing attack against the worst rushing defense in the NFL. New England’s offensive line has been way better than they’re getting credit for this season, and running back Damien Harris has two 100-yard games in his last three outings while averaging more than 5.5 yards per carry this season. The Browns just ran over the Texans to the tune of 231 yards in Week 10 with little threat of a passing game because of weather conditions. Now Houston is supposed to stop Harris and Cam Newton? I don’t think they can.
Eisner’s Locks 2020: 10-12-3 (45%)
Eisner ATS 2020: 82-63-2 (57%)
Eisner’s Locks 2019: 16-11-0 (59%)
Eisner’s Locks 2018: 25-13-2 (66%)
Jake’s Lock No. 1 + Jaime's Lock No. 3: Dolphins -3.5 (-110)
The Broncos are rudderless right now and may be forced to start Brett Rypien for this game. Miami plays complementary football on offense and tremendous defense. They should have a field day stopping this Broncos offense while putting up enough points to win and cover.
Arians’ Locks 2020: 10-8-1 (56%)
Arians ATS 2020: 77-68-2 (53%)
Arians’ Locks 2018: 16-14-1 (53%)
To wager on these games and more, head over to BetOnline.