If you listen to the TDN Fantasy Podcast, you know how much we talk about value. While value is hard to find in the first couple rounds of fantasy football drafts, it can make or break your season in the middle rounds.
Positional value also affects draft strategy, which is why articles like this one can be very helpful. Having a few players in your back pocket as safety options, even if they’re not your primary target heading into your draft, allows you to have way more flexibility on draft day. You can take a chance on a high-risk, high-reward player or snag a player who’s falling at a position you’re already pretty strong in because you know there’s value to be had later on.
Let’s focus specifically on quarterbacks. Here are three of the biggest ADP values at the position right now. TDN Premium members can check out more values by position, as well as deeper rankings and player stat projections by clicking here.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins
ADP: QB31, No. 237 overall
TDN Rank: QB23, No. 173 overall
Fitzpatrick put together a nice little fantasy season in 2019. He finished as a top-20 quarterback overall (18th) and on a points per game basis (20th). Even if it doesn’t feel likely that he’ll end the season as the Dolphins’ starter, he’ll at least begin the season as such. He’ll have wide receivers DeVante Parker, the returning Preston Williams, and Albert Wilson to throw to, along with tight end Mike Gesicki and running back Matt Breida out of the backfield.
Miami has a tough schedule for fantasy quarterbacks, but there should be plenty of volume. The Dolphins had the seventh-most pass attempts per game last season and should challenge to be in the top 10 again this year. Although he likely won’t be helpful in the fantasy playoffs, assuming first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa takes over by December, he’s worthy of a QB2 spot in two-QB or Superflex formats for most of the season.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP: QB15, No. 131.5 overall
TDN Rank: QB12, No. 117 overall
Don’t overlook the returning Roethlisberger in single-QB leagues. He has an outside chance to lead the league in passing again and has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Here’s something to note:
Between 2006-2018, Roethlisberger averaged 7.75 yards per attempt and 7.6 adjusted yards gained per attempt. The former ranged from 7.27 to 8.55 over those 13 seasons, with most seasons falling between 7.5 and 7.9. The latter ranged from 6.1 to 8.5, but Roethlisberger’s last four seasons of adjusted yards gained per attempt came in at 7.8, 7.5, 7.5, and 7.5 respectively. Essentially, there’s nothing in his statistical profile (aside from age) that indicates a massive drop in production coming.
So his production shows no sign of declining (outside of his age) and he’s throwing to a receiving corps that includes the improved duo of Diontae Johnson and James Washington alongside a now-healthy JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Steelers also added pass-catching tight end Eric Ebron this offseason.
Health is the only concern for Roethlisberger. He missed 14 games last season, but just seven games total over the prior six seasons. He comes in at QB12 for me as I project 14 games played for Big Ben this season. If one could guarantee he plays all 16, he’d be my QB8.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: QB18, No. 145.5 overall
TDN Rank: QB14, No. 119 overall
Goff made my sleepers list because there’s a disconnect between his real-life and fantasy values. His real-life struggles last season were infamous, so no fantasy manager is excited to leave their draft with Goff on their bench or as their QB2 in two-QB leagues. However, he’s going to get plenty of volume and has plenty of weapons to throw to.
Goff led the NFL with 626 pass attempts in 2019, and that was with running back Todd Gurley still on the roster. While I don’t expect quite that much work, he should still be near the 600 attempt mark in 2020.
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are high-quality options for him as his top wide receivers, as are Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett at tight end. Josh Reynolds has been productive when given a top-three WR role and rookie Van Jefferson may be able to make an impact late in the season. Plus, I’m excited to see what Sean McVay’s counterpunch is after the league adjusted to his system in 2019. All of that adds up to a productive fantasy season for Goff. He’s not the player he was in the first half of the 2018 season, but he doesn’t need to be in order to be fantasy-relevant.
TDN Premium members can check out more values by position, as well as deeper rankings and player stat projections by clicking here.