College Football Week 4: Marquee Matchups Trends Report

Photo: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Here are BetPrep’s key trends for the biggest matchups in Week 4 of college football.

No. 12 Notre Dame will attempt to stay unbeaten when it clashes with No. 18 Wisconsin at Soldier Field on Saturday, while a pair of 3-0 SEC teams meet at AT&T Stadium when No. 7 Texas A&M battles surprising No. 16 Arkansas.

No. 12 Notre Dame (+6.5) vs. No. 12 Wisconsin

12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 46.5)

This is the first meeting between these two historic programs since 1964. Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan will be facing his former program. The grad transfer is in his first season with the Fighting Irish after posting a 12-6 record as a starter for Wisconsin from 2017-19. The Badgers have allowed only 33 rushing yards per game, the best mark in FBS thus far.

Notre Dame Key Trends

What You Need to Know

  • The Fighting Irish have won seven straight games on the road.
  • Notre Dame is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven road games.
  • The Over is 6-0 in the Irish’s last six games after their last contest stayed under.

Wisconsin Key Trends

What You Need to Know

  • The Badgers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Under is 8-1 in Wisconsin’s last nine games after its last contest stayed under the total.
  • Wisconsin is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games when its opponent has a win streak of two or more.

No. 7 Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. No. 16 Arkansas

3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 47.5)

Arkansas is 3-0 for the first time since 2016. That was also the last time the Razorbacks reached a bowl game. This is the first time they’ve been 3-0 with all three victories coming by 15 or more points since 1998.

Despite its current success, Arkansas has dropped 21 straight games against AP Top 10 teams when its opponent entered the contest with zero losses. The last time the Hogs defeated an AP Top-10 team was in 2006 when they knocked off then-No. 2 Auburn.

After facing Texas A&M on Saturday, the Razorbacks travel to Georgia and Ole Miss for their first two games in October. According to ESPN’s FPI, that’s the toughest three-game stretch in FBS this season.

Texas A&M Key Trends

What You Need to Know

  • The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Under is 6-1 in Texas A&M’s last seven games.
  • The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between Texas A&M and Arkansas when the Aggies have played three or fewer games that season.

Arkansas Key Trends

What You Need to Know

  • The Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The Over is 4-1 in the Hogs’ last five games.
  • Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when facing an opponent with a winning record.

Rutgers (+20.5) at No. 19 Michigan

3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 50)

This is the sixth time in the last 100 seasons that the Wolverines have won each of their first three games by 20 or more points. UM’s longest such streak to start a season over that span is four games, which came in its undefeated 1947 season.

Michigan leads the FBS in rushing with 1,051 yards, which includes 300-plus yards in all three of their games. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the only Big Ten team over the last 15 seasons to rush for 300 or more yards in four straight games was Ohio State in 2013. The Buckeyes eclipsed the 300-yard mark in five straight games that year.

The Scarlet Knights outscored their opponents by 89, their third-highest margin through three games in the AP Poll Era. They had a +120 point differential through three games in 1940 and were +111 in 2007. Rutgers defense is allowing just 4.24 yards per play, third in the Big Ten behind only Penn State and Iowa.

Rutgers Key Trends

What You Need to Know

  • The Scarlet Knights are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games when facing an opponent with a winning record.
  • Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in its last five games on the road.
  • The Under is 4-9-1 in the Scarlet Knights’ last 14 games after their last game went over the total.

Michigan Key Trends

What You Need to Know

  • The Wolverines are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games when they outscored their opponent by more than 35 points in their previous game.
  • Michigan is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games when it scored more than 49 points in its previous contest.
  • The Over is 7-0 in Michigan’s last seven games when playing Rutgers on a Saturday.

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