Bills vs Saints: Thanksgiving Betting Trends

Photo: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints

(Line: +6, O/U 45.5)

Buffalo Bills BETPREP TRENDS

Among the relevant trends here, the Bills are 33-23-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That's $770 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, Buffalo enjoyed solid ATS marks against NFC competition (9-4, $460), serving as the betting favorite (17-13, $270) and when playing on the road (18-9-2, $810). The ATS numbers for 2021 are solid, with the Bills going 6-4 overall ($160), 3-2 as the betting favorite ($80), and 1-0 versus NFC teams ($100). Also, Buffalo has an 8-0 ATS record from its last eight games of being the implied favorite to win by less than 70 percent ($800). For the season, the Bills offense ranks second in scoring offense (29.5 points per game), fifth in total offense (391.7 yards per week), seventh in passing offense (272.9 yards per game), and 12th in rushing offense (118.8 yards per week). What’s more, Buffalo has the league's No. 2 scoring defense, at 17.6 points per game.

New Orleans Saints BETPREP TRENDS

Factoring in recent trends, the Saints are 35-23 against the spread (ATS) over the last three-plus seasons. That's $970 from a straight $110 bet. For that period, New Orleans posted strong ATS results when representing the betting underdog (12-3, $870) and taking on NFC competition (8-6, $140). The ATS numbers for 2021 are a mixed bag, at 5-5 overall (minus-$50), 2-2 at home (minus-$20) ... but also 4-1 as the betting underdog ($290). Entering Week 12, the Saints own the league's No. 3 rush defense, allowing only 89.9 ground yards per game. The offense, in turn, ranks 13th in rushing offense (117.9 yards per week), 14th in scoring offense (25.1 points per game), 24th in total offense (321.3 yards per week), and 26th in passing offense (203.4 yards per game).

Total Trends

The Bills have toppled the Over 24 times in their last 42 games, including one push, dating back to 2019 ($630). The Saints have been less successful within the same timeline of regular-season games, going 20-21-1 with the Over (minus-$310). All combined, that's a 44-38-2 track record with the Over ($220) or, if betting the Under, minus-1,040. In 2021, Buffalo and New Orleans are 6-4 and 5-5 with the Over for a combined 11-9 ($110). Citing other key trends, the Bills are 1-6-1 with the Under (minus-$560) when their weekly opponent has an ongoing streak of two or more losses. Also, the Saints are 12-1 with the Over ($1090), when tracking the last 13 times their opponent scored 16 or fewer points the previous week. Conversely, New Orleans has failed to hit the Over in its last nine games on Thursday night (minus-$990).

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