How will the NFL’s newest crop of rookie quarterbacks perform this season? For some fan bases, that question is the only sliver of hope. For others, it's rooted in curiosity, excitement, or even desperation.
But enough with the soft language. Let’s be real.
The NFL doesn’t do patience. Fantasy football managers? Even less. Fans? Forget about it. Drafting a rookie quarterback is often a rollercoaster of hype, heartbreak, and harsh reality. Sure, a young QB can inject hope into a franchise. But more than that, they can save jobs.
Just look at the Washington Commanders. A year ago, they took LSU’s Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. All Daniels did was run away with Offensive Rookie of the Year, lead the Commanders from four wins to 13, and bring them to the doorstep of the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship Game.
No matter what Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, or New Orleans Saints fans say—or how humble they try to sound—the thought that they might be “this year’s Commanders” has definitely crossed their minds at least once since the 2025 Draft.
The NFL season is full of chaos and surprises, making predictions a fool’s errand. But history does offer some clues about what rookie quarterbacks can achieve statistically. So let’s break it down.
Cam Ward (Tennessee Titans)
| STARTS | ATT. | YARDS | TDs | INTs |
| 17 | 547.40 | 3,886.54 | 25.72 | 13.14 |
| Per-17 | 547.40 | 3,886.54 | 25.72 | 13.14 |
Cam Ward will be the Titans’ Week 1 starter—there’s no reason to assume otherwise. He’s the only rookie passer in the class to have this guarantee and will likely be the only one under center when Week 1 kicks off. This provides us with a unique outlook to project a 17-game sample for Ward. How did we reach the above statistics?
Based on recent trends in head coach Brian Callahan’s playcalling and current team personnel, we can project roughly 32.20 passing attempts per game (Titans had 31.18 passing attempts per game in 2024). Looking at comparable players drafted in the top half of the first round over the last eight seasons, let’s assume a yards-per-attempt average of 7.10, a touchdown percentage of 4.7%, and an interception percentage of 2.4%.
Jaxson Dart (New York Giants)
| STARTS | ATT. | YARDS | TDs | INTs |
| 5 | 162.50 | 1,129.38 | 7.09 | 3.98 |
| Per-17 | 552.50 | 3,839.88 | 24.09 | 13.54 |
Jaxson Dart will need to wait behind Russell Wilson to start the 2025 season. The major question isn’t if but when Dart gets to take over the reins. When could Dart make his first NFL start? I’m targeting Week 13 against the New England Patriots. I expect Wilson and the Giants to be competitive enough to hold off until late November before making the switch, allowing Dart to play against New England before entering New York’s Week 14 bye.
Based on recent trends in head coach Brian Daboll’s playcalling and current team personnel, we can project the Giants to throw roughly 32.50 times per game after averaging 32.62 passing attempts per game over the last two seasons. Looking at comparable players drafted outside the top 10 picks in the NFL draft, let’s assume a yards-per-attempt average of 6.95, a touchdown percentage of 4.36%, and an interception percentage of 2.45%.
Tyler Shough (New Orleans Saints)
| STARTS | ATT. | YARDS | TDs | INTs |
| 13 | 417.04 | 2,727.44 | 14.05 | 12.22 |
| Per-17 | 545.36 | 3,566.66 | 18.38 | 15.98 |
If another rookie quarterback is going to start Week 1, it’s Tyler Shough. The Saints’ summer quarterback competition is more of a spat than a battle, but if Shough manages to beat out Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, he could start the entire season. Otherwise, look for Shough to start in October when the Saints play three of four games at home.
Based on recent trends in head coach Kellen Moore’s playcalling and current team personnel, we can project the Saints to throw roughly 32.08 times per game. Shough is a tough player to comp because of his age and the lack of second-round passers asked to play significantly in recent seasons. As we look at second-round passers taken in the previous 12 drafts like Will Levis (nine games), Jalen Hurts (four games), Drew Lock (five games), DeShone Kizer (15 games), Derek Carr (16 games), and Geno Smith (16 games), let’s assume a yards-per-attempt average of 6.54, a touchdown percentage of 3.37%, and an interception percentage of 2.93%.
Other QBs
The next three quarterbacks drafted have an outside chance at some playing time this season: Jalen Milroe (Seattle Seahawks), Dillon Gabriel (Cleveland Browns), and Shedeur Sanders (Cleveland Browns). While Sam Darnold should be Seattle’s season-long starter barring injury, Cleveland’s situation is tough to predict. Both rookies, Joe Flacco, and Kenny Pickett are options to not only start Week 1 but replace whomever starts the season under center, so it’s nearly impossible to even project how much (or if) the rookies will play.
