The San Francisco 49ers endured a difficult defeat on Sunday, losing their Week 11 game at home to their NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks. The setback dropped the 49ers to a disappointing 5-5 on the season, tying them with the Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams in the division. Despite the nature of their campaign, head coach Kyle Shanahan should not be on the hot seat.
The 49ers entered the season as Super Bowl front-runners after losing last year's iteration to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime. It marked their third consecutive season having reached at least the NFC Championship Game, and second Super Bowl appearance in the last five NFL campaigns. Despite those expectations, the 49ers are currently the No. 10 seed in the NFC playoff picture.
Shanahan possesses every opportunity to turn San Francisco's season around. The division-leading Arizona Cardinals are just 6-4, one victory ahead of the 49ers for the NFC West lead. The 49ers possess two divisional games on their remaining schedule, including a potentially decisive regular-season finale versus the Cardinals.
The funniest things I think I see is Niners fans trying talk themselves out of Kyle Shanahan.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) November 19, 2024
Kyle would have a HC job the next day, and Niners fans seemed to have forgotten the Tomsula/Chip Kelly mess he pulled them out of.
Regardless of 2024's outcome, the 49ers shouldn't consider parting ways with Shanahan, who owns a 69-56 record as their head coach. Shanahan's 49ers have indeed fallen short of their ultimate goal time and time again but consider this: His 8-4 postseason record equals a playoff winning percentage of 66.7%. By comparison, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has a 44.4% postseason win percentage (8-10), albeit he's won a Super Bowl. Still, it adds much-needed context to the false "Shanahan can't win in the playoffs" narrative that occasionally makes its rounds.
It's been a difficult season for the 49ers, no doubt. The tumultuous year began in the offseason when holdouts by Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams dominated headlines. Both players eventually inked deals, but additional challenges have been present. Aiyuk suffered a season-ending injury. George Kittle has been a mainstay on the injury report. Superstar running back Christian McCaffrey just recently made his 2024 debut after an Achilles-related setback sidelined him for far longer than originally anticipated. San Francisco's healthiest receiver is rookie Ricky Pearsall, who was shot in the chest in September.
Yet, Shanahan's offense has routinely found answers this season. They currently rank ninth in points scored per game (25.0), seventh in rushing (147.8), and fourth in passing (251.1). It's Shanahan's offense that's helped develop Brock Purdy from Mr. Irrelevant to a franchise quarterback, one that will sign a very relevant contract extension in the near future.
Kyle Shanahan ranks dead last in “easy button” usage this year, with the 49ers sitting at 5-5.
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) November 20, 2024
Will his lack of adaptability and aggressiveness come back to haunt the team down the stretch? https://t.co/hqzvgn6IHT pic.twitter.com/AgZzDu9Y90
Defensive metrics paint an interesting story as well. First-year defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen has his defense currently ranked eighth against the pass (197.2), eighth versus the run (105.0), and 17th in points allowed per outing (22.2). Analyze the tape and Sorensen's defense is less impressive. It lacks pre-and-post-snap creativity, doesn't disguise its intentions well, and routinely fails to dial up free hits on the quarterback. The jury remains out on that appointment.
So why are the 49ers 5-5? Shanahan is 2-4 in one-score games this campaign, indicating a failure to close out hard-fought contests. Some of that is blind luck, but Shanahan ultimately holds responsibility for San Francisco's successes and failures.
I envision Shanahan's 49ers managing to still qualify for the postseason. He's an excellent head coach with a decorated resume that backs that statement. The 49ers would almost certainly downgrade if they relieved him. Remember Chip Kelly and Jim Tomsula? Yeah, it was Shanahan who dragged the organization out of that mess. CEO Jed York shouldn't be anxious to repeat history.
Finding quality head coaching is far more difficult in this league than most acknowledge. After all, first-year head coaches are currently 35-48 this season, with many of them battling for the No. 1 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. Shanahan has displayed occasional faults this campaign, but firing him would be a catastrophic error in judgment.
