A common phrase in football is that games aren’t won on paper, but, sometimes, Atlanta Falcons fans wish it could be that simple.
Between 2021-2023, Atlanta made an emphatic statement drafting tight end Kyle Pitts, receiver Drake London, and running back Bijan Robinson with consecutive top-eight picks. Some organizations may have chosen to build their identity through their defense, the trenches, or made a more aggressive effort to draft a quarterback. However, the Falcons opted for building in a more “flashy” sense.
Unfortunately, with three straight 7-10 seasons, the results haven’t been there for Atlanta, and the organization made their displeasure known this offseason by addressing arguably the two most marquee positions for a football team—head coach and quarterback. In addition to hiring Raheem Morris as head coach to replace Arthur Smith, the Falcons also signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a $180 million deal despite the fact he was still recovering from tearing his Achilles. There was obvious risk with said contract, but if Cousins could prove to be the missing piece for an offense beaming with talented players, the NFC South seemingly would be theirs for the taking.
So far, the results have been mixed. Cousins turned the ball over three times in an 18-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, and the offense was also held to three points in the second half of a disappointing 22-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3. Yet, he’s also had three game-winning drives against the Philadelphia Eagles (Week 2), New Orleans Saints (Week 4), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 5), while Atlanta finds themselves in first place in the NFC South. It’s been a roller-coaster of emotions, and you never know where the ride will take you next.
That being said, when you add those five weeks altogether, the picture becomes much prettier for the Falcons. Although they only rank 17th in points per game, they are a top-10 team in yards/play (8th), yards/game (10th), and passing yards/game (6th). The problem? They also rank just 26th and 28th in third-down conversion rate (30.8%) and red-zone conversion rate (42.9%), respectively. Over a larger sample size, you would imagine those numbers would improve, and, if so, their productivity moving the ball down the field will translate to more scoring. What may be more worth monitoring, however, is who plays the largest role in this offense.
Of the team’s three first-round skill position players, London certainly has separated himself from the rest. The third-year receiver has been targeted 25 times over his past two games, is a top-five receiver currently in receptions, and has been the team’s leading receiver by a significant margin since being drafted. Pitts and Robinson, on the other hand, haven’t quite established themselves to that level yet.
Considering that he remains the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history, the expectations were astonishing for Pitts coming out of the University of Florida, and the former fourth overall pick responded with a 1026-yard season as a rookie. Nevertheless, the drop-off in his production since then has been concerning:
- 2021: 60.4 receiving yards/game
- 2022: 35.6 receiving yards/game
- 2023: 39.2 receiving yards/game
- 2024: 38.6 receiving yards/game
It’s important to note that Pitts was catching passes from Matt Ryan in 2021, and London was not yet in the picture. Plus, after being held without a catch in the team’s Week 4 win versus the Saints, he immediately responded with an 88-yard showing the following week, the most he’s had in a game since Week 15 of 2021.
With a new coaching staff, Pitts’ role also is starting to change. He has played on 79% of the team’s snaps this year, a 15% increase from the previous season, and has also been targeted at a shallower depth than ever before:
- 2021: 10.8-yard average depth of target (ADOT)
- 2022: 13.8-yard ADOT
- 2023: 11.4-yard ADOT
- 2024: 7.7-yard ADOT
The trust is clearly there for Pitts, and he’s had much more success producing after the catch this season. It is important to remember that he made the Pro Bowl as a rookie and was drafted as high as he was for a reason. The circumstances haven’t been in his favor in the midst of quarterback inconsistency and a lack of a clear role with the previous coaching staff, but things could be changing for the better now.
Robinson, meanwhile, faces immediate pressure to perform given the relatively quick development curve at the running back position. On one end, he did accumulate 1463 total yards as a rookie, but he’s also averaging more than a yard less per carry than backup Tyler Allgeier this season, and the gap in carries between the two is shrinking.
That being said, Robinson is facing a defense with eight or more players in the box nearly three times the rate of Allgeier, was nursing a hamstring injury this previous week, and still has a notable advantage in his overall snap share. The organization has a lot invested in him and running backs drafted as highly as he was truly have to be standout players in the current age of positional value. With three straight bottom-12 rushing defenses on tap for Atlanta, this would appear to be a prudent time for Robinson’s production to break out.
Ultimately, despite the inconsistency, the Falcons’ offseason makeover has led to a first-place standing and an offense destined to start scoring at a significantly higher level. In addition to their investment in Cousins, the draft investment in Pitts, London, and Robinson will continue to leave their offense under immense pressure to perform. London has more than performed expectations, but the other two have faced more challenges in matching that quest. With the first month of the season out of the way, it’s now or never for not just the organization, but the investments that will define their direction moving forward.
